ET NEWS

After nearly two weeks of rebound, Tuesday’s session turned out to be a dampener with selling pressure gripping the indices right from the opening bell.“What made it worse was the banking sector,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, in a conversation with ET Now. “Private banks have not participated in this recovery at all. Today, with heavyweights dragging, sentiment was further dampened.”The Nifty slipped below the crucial 24,800 mark—its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA)—a breach that traders were hoping to avoid. Mishra warned that the index may slide further towards 24,600–24,630, a zone aligned with the 100-day EMA. “The recovery has derailed. From here, consolidation with a negative bias seems more likely in the days ahead,” he noted.But it wasn’t all gloom. In fact, pockets of strength stood out, particularly in FMCG and autos. Maruti Suzuki surged nearly 2% with strong volumes, scaling record highs. “It looks like shorts are trapped, and that’s fuelling further upside,” Mishra explained. Alongside, FMCG biggies like HUL and Nestlé managed to hold their ground, while Marico, Godrej Consumer, and Britannia also remained resilient.“Even if the market weakens, FMCG and auto stocks should continue to outperform. The momentum in stocks like Maruti, TVS, and Eicher looks intact. From FMCG, I’d keep a close eye on HUL, Britannia, Marico, and Godrej Consumer,” Mishra suggested.On strategy, he advised balance—maintaining exposure on both sides of the trade. “Godrej Consumer has rebounded smartly and is holding firm even during profit-taking phases. One can accumulate at current levels for a target of ₹1,320 with a stop at ₹1,228,” he said.At the same time, he cautioned against the banking space. “With the index slipping below critical support, more pressure is likely. IndusInd Bank stands out as a shorting candidate, with a target of ₹720 and a stop loss at ₹788.”For now, the market mood remains clouded with uncertainty. Banking weakness has soured the broader sentiment, but defensive plays in FMCG and steady performers in autos are offering traders some comfort. The coming sessions, analysts say, will be a test of whether these pockets can hold their ground against the broader drag.

New Delhi: India’s economy faces significant risks from steep US tariffs, with export-heavy sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, food and marine products likely to bear the brunt, said Aurodeep Nandi, India Economist at Nomura. While smartphones, pharma and petroleum products remain exempt, nearly 30–40% of India’s export basket is directly exposed to the tariff hike, he told ET Now. Another 30% to 40% of the total basket is either exempt or treated differently. Auto is getting hit with a 25% tax since they fall under a different category in Section 232. Likewise, iron and steel segment is already taxed at 50%. The economist cautioned: “The direct hit is on exports, but the second-round effect will be felt in jobs and demand. If tariffs persist until FY26, the recovery for these sectors will be slow and uneven.” He also warned that MSMEs are at greater risk.“India’s biggest export items like smartphones (18%), pharma (11%) and petroleum are excluded. But frontline sectors such as textiles, gems, jewellery and marine products now face 50% tariffs versus 10–20% for peers. That’s a massive competitive disadvantage,” Nandi said. The impact, he added, will spill into employment, informal economies around export hubs, and consumption demand.FY26 GDP growth forecast cutNomura has cut India’s FY26 GDP growth forecast to 6% from 6.2%, factoring in weaker exports and delayed private capex recovery. “Private investment is already subdued, and with this uncertainty, companies will take a backseat. The festive season and GST tax cuts will provide some support, but overall sentiment is dampened,” he noted.On government measures, Nandi said GST rationalisation and reform push could ease business costs over time, but will take longer to offset tariff shocks. Their effectiveness against the negative impacts of tariffs remains to be seen. RBI, he added, will likely step in with further monetary easing. “We expect 50 basis points of cuts—25 bps in October and another 25 bps in December. Growth and inflation are both tracking lower than RBI’s forecasts, making this an appropriate time to continue the easing cycle,” he said.Sectorally, Nandi warned that MSMEs are at greater risk since they lack margins to absorb steep tariff hikes, forcing some units in gems and jewellery to consider relocating overseas. The broader concern, he said, is that prolonged tariff pressure could squeeze export-driven clusters, reduce employment, and weaken domestic consumption.

As India celebrates Ganesh Chaturthi today, a look back at the past year shows 33 stocks delivering up to 22,000% returns since the last Ganapati Utsav. Topping the list is midcap Elitecon International with a staggering 22,344% gain, followed by smallcaps Kothari Industrial Corporation and Colab Platforms, which surged 2,557% and 981%, respectively.Other multibaggers with over 200% returns are CIAN Agro Industries & Infrastructure (416%), NACL Industries (368%), Lucent Industries (203%) and Indo Thai Securities (202%).Meanwhile, several mid and smallcap names such as Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers, ASM Technologies, Ceinsys Tech, Force Motors, CarTrade Tech, Paradeep Phosphates, AGI Infra, Apollo Micro Systems, JSW Holdings, SML Isuzu, 63 Moons Technologies, Frontier Springs, Tanfac Industries have surged between 101% and 180%.Other names in this list are: Axiscades Technologies, Sika Interplant Systems, Lumax Auto Technologies, Gabriel India, Afcom Holdings, Camlin Fine Sciences, Shaily Engineering Plastics, One97 Communications (Paytm), Vimta Labs, Manaksia Coated Metals & Industries, Lloyds Enterprises, Cupid and Acutaas Chemicals.All the stocks that have been taken into account have a market capitalisation of Rs 1,500 crore or more.The journey of these stocks assumes importance given that the headline index Nifty has fallen 0.6% since September 6, 2024, when the last Ganesh Chaturthi was observed. On Tuesday, the 50-stock index settled at 24,712.05, down from 24,852.15 in the previous session.Since hitting a lifetime high of 26,277.35 on September 27, 2024, Nifty has had a roller coaster ride largely on the back of President Donald Trump's re-election to the Oval Office. Currently, the index is down 6% or 1,565 points from the peak. <iframe title="33 Multibaggers since last Ganesh Chaturthi" aria-label="Bar Chart" id="datawrapper-chart-uTJ3W" src="https://et-infographics.indiatimes.com/graphs/uTJ3W/1/" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" style="width: 0; min-width: 100% !important; border: none;" height="1101" data-external="1"></iframe><script type="text/javascript">!function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r,i=0;r=e[i];i++)if(r.contentWindow===a.source){var d=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";r.style.height=d}}})}();</script> Also Read: Ganesh Chaturthi picks: Eternal, Dmart and Eicher Motors are stocks to buy with potential upside of 16%Double-digit wondersA total of 265 stocks have given double-digit returns up to 98% with Zuari Agro Chemicals topping this list. Other widely tracked stocks from the broader markets include Le Travenues Technology (Ixigo), Laurus Labs, Fortis Healthcare, Bharti Hexacom, Reliance Power, Anand Rathi Wealth, Dixon Technologies (India), Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE), HDFC Asset Management Company, Coforge, Bharat Electronics, Lemon Tree Hotels, Reliance Infrastructure, Interglobe Aviation, Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and Nazara Technologies. Furthermore, 120 stocks have given single-digit returns during this period.From the Nifty pack, Eicher Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Eternal, HDFC Bank, Maruti Suzuki India, ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank were index outperformers with returns between 26% and 12%.Nifty stocks with single-digit returns are HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Steel, Grasim Industries and State Bank of India (SBI).LaggardsIn contrast, 790 stocks have yielded negative returns, and of these, around 600 stocks saw their share price erode up to 76%. Major laggards include Protean e-Gov Technologies, Raymond, Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail, OLA Electric Mobility, Adani Green Energy, IndusInd Bank, Vodafone Idea, SpiceJet, REC and Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA).(Data Inputs from Ritesh Presswala)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

Indian exporters are facing one of the toughest trade shocks in years as the United States on Wednesday officially imposed an additional 25% tariff on key goods from India, adding to an existing 25% duty and bringing the total US levy to 50%.The tariffs apply to products “entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 am EDT on August 27, 2025” (9:31 am IST), according to the Department of Homeland Security.The move is linked to India’s continued purchases of Russian oil and defence equipment. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have accused India of indirectly funding Russia’s war in Ukraine through its oil imports. Bessent noted earlier this month that India now sources 42% of its oil from Russia, up from under 1% before the conflict.“The government has no hope for any immediate relief or delay in US tariffs,” a Commerce Ministry official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. He added that exporters affected by the tariffs will receive financial assistance and support to diversify into markets such as China, Latin America, and the Middle East.Also Read: Trump’s 50% tariff shock hits India – what it means for growth, jobs, and hardest-hit sectors“The government has identified nearly 50 countries for increasing Indian exports, particularly of textiles, food-processed items, leather goods, and marine products,” the official said.Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking in Ahmedabad, described the current global trade climate as one defined by “economic selfishness,” where nations prioritise their own interests. He emphasised India’s resilience, saying, “No matter how high the pressure, India will continue to build its strength to withstand it.”Modi underscored India’s determination to safeguard domestic interests. “The interests of farmers, cattle rearers, and small-scale industries are paramount. The pressure may increase, but we will bear it,” he said, invoking the legacies of Lord Krishna and Mahatma Gandhi.Exports under threatAs per GTRI, India exports around $86.5 billion in goods to the US each year. Of this, roughly $60.2 billion, about two-thirds, will now face a 50% tariff. An additional $3.4 billion in auto parts remains at the existing 25% duty, while $27.6 billion, mainly in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and petroleum, is exempt, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).Labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, gems and jewellery, seafood, and leather are most exposed. Metals, including aluminium, steel, and copper, continue under the existing 25% duty.Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, warns that exports in the affected sectors could collapse by 70%, falling from $60.2 billion to $18.6 billion. Overall shipments to the US could decline by 43%, putting hundreds of thousands of jobs in India’s export hubs at risk.Economists estimate the tariffs could shave 0.4–0.5% off GDP growth in FY26, with effects felt on private investment, labour markets, and domestic manufacturing.Also Read: Centre readies export shield as US tariffs set to hit $48 bn tradeForeign Minister S. Jaishankar said last week that trade talks continue, highlighting that US scrutiny of India’s Russian oil imports is not applied equally to China or the EU. Reuters reported that three refining sources confirmed companies will continue buying Russian oil based on economics, despite the tariffs.“There is no directive from the government so far regarding oil purchases from Russia,” Jaishankar said. He added that India will continue to make strategic energy choices, dismissing claims that the tariff is solely an “oil dispute.”Earlier this year, Indian officials were confident a deal with the US could limit tariffs to 15%, but negotiations broke down amid political misjudgments and missed signals. Bilateral trade between the US and India totals over $190 billion.How India is preparing for Trump's tariffsThe Centre has ruled out retaliation but is working on measures to soften the blow. Officials said meetings with industry are ongoing, and a ₹25,000-crore Export Promotion Mission is under consideration. The plan includes trade finance, regulatory support, standards alignment, ecommerce hubs, warehousing, and better branding for “Brand India.”“The Export Promotion Mission and other proposals such as SEZ amendments are being considered,” said a senior official. Another official added, “Deliberations in the government have been ongoing and meetings with the industry are also taking place.”India and the US are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement (BTA). However, American negotiators have postponed their India visit that was scheduled for August 25.Commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal, at the ET World Leaders Forum last week, said India’s relationship with the US is “very consequential,” but national interest remains the guiding factor. “We are looking at a GST revamp. We'll see how we can support many of these labour-intensive sectors, like food processing, textile, through the GST framework to give a boost to domestic demand,” he said.Looking aheadThe government is considering GST adjustments, reforms, and incentives to cushion the impact. Bilateral trade discussions may offer some relief, but for now, Indian exporters face one of the harshest trade barriers in recent memory.“This is a significant shock to India’s export-led growth,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI. “The next few months will test the resilience of our industries, our workforce, and our trade diplomacy.”