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Gold hits record high, heads for best month in 14 years on safe-haven rush

1 week 6 days ago
Gold prices rose further to hit a fresh high on Tuesday and were poised for their best month in 14 years, as fears of a potential U.S. government shutdown and growing expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts boosted demand for the safe-haven metal. FUNDAMENTALS Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,842.76 per ounce, as of 0123 GMT. Bullion has risen 11.4% so far in September, on track for its best month since August 2011. U.S. gold futures for December delivery gained 0.4% to $3,872. U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday. Recent economic data has lifted expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, with traders pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the next Fed meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said he was open to further rate cuts but the Fed must be cautious and keep rates high enough to continue to lean against inflation. Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, thrives in a low interest rate environment. Investors now await U.S. data on job openings, private payrolls, the ISM manufacturing PMI and Friday's non-farm payrolls report for further clues on the economy's health. The U.S. Labor Department confirmed on Monday that its statistics agency would suspend economic data releases, including the closely-watched monthly employment report for September, in the event of a partial government shutdown. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.60% to 1,011.73 metric tons on Monday from 1,005.72 tons on Friday.

Key points of Trump's Gaza peace plan

1 week 6 days ago
US President Donald Trump on Monday laid out a plan to end the war in Gaza and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he backed the proposal.The two allies demanded approval by Hamas, whose October 7, 2023 attack triggered a massive Israeli offensive, with Netanyahu warning he will "finish the job" if Hamas says no.Here are the key points:WAR ENDS AND HOSTAGES RELEASEDIsrael will immediately suspend military operations once the two sides agree, and Hamas then will have 72 hours to return all October 7 hostages including the remains of those who are dead. Israel in turn will free 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences, 1,700 Gaza residents detained in the war, and the remains of 15 Palestinians for the remains of each dead hostage.Israel will eventually withdraw from Gaza in phases.TRUMP TO HEAD TRANSITION BODYTrump himself will become chair of a transitional "Board of Peace" in Gaza that will include former British prime minister Tony Blair.The board will consider "exciting development ideas" and turn the war-ravaged territory into a special economic zone with preferential tariff rates.Trump has previously spoken of developing property in the Mediterranean territory, where virtually the entire population of two million has been displaced by war that has reduced most buildings to rubble.NO FORCED DISPLACEMENTContrary to calls by right-wing Israeli government ministers, Palestinians would not be forced to leave Gaza and Israel will not annex the territory.Instead, the plan says that the transitional body will "encourage people to stay and offer them the opportunity to build a better Gaza."NO ROLE FOR HAMAS BUT CONDITIONAL AMNESTY Hamas, which took control of Gaza in 2007, will play no role in future governance.However, Hamas members will be granted amnesty if they commit to "peaceful coexistence" and decommission their weapons. Hamas members will also be allowed safe passage to leave Gaza.INTERNATIONAL STABILIZATION FORCE The plan calls for an "international Stabilization Force" to deploy immediately in Gaza, with support from Arab states.The force will train Palestinian police in Gaza and work to ensure security with Israel and neighboring Egypt.Indonesia has previously voiced willingness to contribute troops.UNCLEAR FUTURE FOR PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY, STATE The plan does not rule out a Palestinian state, despite Netanyahu's longtime vows to fight one, including after recent recognition of a State of Palestine by France, Britain and other powers."The conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognize as the aspiration of the Palestinian people," the plan says.The plan also suggests allowing a role for the Palestinian Authority once it has "completed its reform program" and points to a French-backed initiative to strengthen the Ramallah-based body, which opposes Hamas.But Netanyahu in remarks alongside Trump said he saw "no role whatsoever" for the Palestinian Authority without it "undergoing a radical and genuine transformation."

Bond purchases by FPIs decline in September amidst rupee weakness

1 week 6 days ago
Mumbai: Purchases of Indian bonds by overseas investors slowed in September after rising over the past two months as a fall in the rupee made investors cautious.The rupee, which is the worst performing currency among in Asia this year, has been under pressure mostly through September on mounting worries of higher US tariffs. On September 23, it fell to a fresh record low of 88.7975 per dollar. A weak rupee erodes returns for foreign portfolio investors.Net inflows in the fully accessible route (FAR) on government securities slowed to around ₹6,665 crore in September (until Sep 29), from ₹10,470 crore a month ago, data on CCIL showed.Securities in the FAR category are eligible for inclusion in the global bond indices, and these papers are fully open for investment without restrictions.124223072"If we get another round of rupee weakness, then people would worry and want to defer their purchase for some more time. The pace of decline should be orderly and it should provide competence to investors. If it is abrupt, then some of these flows can stay away," said Abhishek Upadhyay, senior economist, fixed income strategy, ICICI Securities PD.The country has also been an underperformer in foreign inflows into the continent, with flows going toward China within the Asian region, amid global and domestic uncertainties.“Although, we have received some money on the debt side, India has underperformed. First, we had the geopolitical issue of India-Pakistan, then the larger than expected 50% tariffs by the US. Most of the flows have moved towards China in the Asian region,” Upadhyay said. On the other hand, positioning ahead of the Reserve Bank of India monetary policy decision, which will be detailed on Wednesday, and brief appreciation in the local currency as dollar weakened ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting supported buying of Indian government bonds during the month, bank treasury officials said. According to an ET poll, even as majority expect RBI to hold rates at 5.50% on October 1, there is also a significant minority that expects another 25 basis point cut Earlier this month, Bloomberg Index Services sought views on whether Indian government bonds should be included in its global index. Traders however do not expect any immediate impact as the decision—positive or negative—will take at least a year.

Post IPO, Tata Capital to have growth fuel for 3 years: CEO

1 week 6 days ago
Mumbai: Tata Capital, among the top three diversified financial services companies owned by India's largest conglomerate, will consider a fresh round of dilution in equity only after two-and-a-half to three years, a top official at the Tata Group entity said.The proposed ₹15,512-crore IPO, which will open for subscription early next week, will result in an 11.21% dilution in the promoter's stake. Tata Group owns 95.8% in the company, and of this Tata Sons holds 88% stake. The proposed IPO is the largest from the Tata group to date. "The capital we raise and the profits we will earn will support us for growth over the next two-and-a-half to three years and I think post (that), we may need infusion of capital," CEO Rajiv Sabharwal said in an interview with ET.The issue, priced between ₹310 and ₹326 apiece, is substantially below the price of the unlisted shares (at ₹735) and July's ₹1,752-crore rights issue, which was at ₹343 apiece."Our whole idea was to have a much larger base of retail investors. The IPO is the time when new investors come in. So the board felt that if we give a discount compared to the last rights price, then we will have a much larger base of investors in our IPO. And that was the sole objective," Sabharwal explained. After the IPO, the company's capital adequacy will increase to 22% (from 17% at the end of March 2025).Tata Capital has expanded to about 1,500 branches, most of them added in the last three years or so. Sabharwal said Tata Capital does not expect to add branches at the same pace, having fronted a lot of investment in the branches as well as technology. This means that as a percentage of income, expenses will keep coming down.Vocal for LocalSabharwal said with the company's lending being local, 90% of the borrowing comes from local sources, such as bank loans and bonds placed in the domestic market. "We also look at ECBs and bonds (overseas). About 10% of our borrowing is through overseas. But we will ensure that the cost of funds remains low," he said.In January this year, the company had raised $400 million through its first fixed-rate senior unsecured 3.5-year bond at a coupon rate of 5.38%. This issuance was part of a larger medium-term notes (MTN) programme to raise up to $2 billion.The company is the third largest NBFC by loan book at ₹2.33 lakh crore-behind ₹2.70 lakh crore at Shriram Finance and ₹4.14 lakh crore of Bajaj Finance. "Retail loans will continue to be 88% to 90% of our loan book. We also are not seeing stress anywhere in terms of credit costs. It is fairly benign for us because wherever we see stress, we are very quick to act. And just because we are present in multiple productions, even if we become conservative in one, it really doesn't make a difference because we have multiple engines which can grow for us," Sabharwal said.

RBI to enable faster transmission of rates

1 week 6 days ago
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday announced a series of regulatory amendments aimed at faster transmission of policy rates, easing gold loan norms and relaxing norms of large credit exposures. Three of the seven changes will take effect from October 1, while the remaining four have been released as draft proposals for public feedback.Under the revised directions on interest rate on advances, banks will now be allowed to reduce spread components on floating rate loans before the current three-year lock-in period, a move aimed at benefiting borrowers. This could result in faster transmission of rate cuts, leading to lower EMIs or interest outgo. Additionally, banks may offer borrowers the option to switch to fixed-rate loans at the time of interest rate resets, though this will no longer be mandatory.This apart, the RBI has expanded the scope of lending against gold and silver collateral allowing banks and tier-3 and -4 urban co-operative banks to extend working capital loans to any borrower using gold as a raw material, not just jewellers.Norms for Faster Transmission of Rates UnveiledThe central bank also revised the Basel III capital regulations, increasing the eligible limit for perpetual debt instruments (PDIs) issued in foreign currency or rupee-denominated bonds overseas. The move is expected to provide banks with greater headroom to raise tier-1 capital via offshore markets.Among the draft proposals, the RBI has suggested extending the repayment tenor for gold metal loans (GML) to 270 days from 180 days and allowing non-manufacturing jewellers to avail GML for outsourced production.The regulator also proposed aligning the Large Exposures Framework (LEF) and Intragroup Transactions and Exposures (ITE) norms for foreign bank branches in India. eExposures to head offices will now be considered only under LEF and credit risk mitigation benefits will be extended to a broader set of exposures.To improve the timeliness and accuracy of credit data, the RBI has proposed that credit institutions submit information to credit bureaus on a weekly basis, replacing the current fortnightly requirement. The draft also mandates faster error rectification and inclusion of CKYC numbers in consumer reports. Public comments on the draft circulars are invited until October 20.
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1 hour 26 minutes ago
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