ET NEWS

Nifty’s eight-day winning streak reflects a cautious yet positive undertone, says Rupak De of LKP Securities. He sees limited IT upside, defence stocks on the radar, and expiry shifts still in discovery mode. For the week, his top picks include Railtel, Cochin Shipyard, and Bajaj Finance.Edited excerpts from a chat:Nifty has now recorded a feat of 8 consecutive positive endings, but the movement in those 8 days hasn’t been that sharp. How do you see the index’s trajectory ahead when it seems to be making slow but steady strides?The Nifty’s recent up move looks more like a cautious rally rather than a sharp price rise, as investors embrace both positive and negative news. The index is consolidating gains, gradually building a base. As long as it holds above key support around 24,850, the bias remains positive. A decisive move above 25,150 could open the doors towards 25,500 in the short term.Banks kept pace with the rally, but IT surprised. Do you think that it’s going to be curtains down for tech in the week ahead?IT’s bounce was largely led by short-covering and value buying at lower levels. A rise towards 38000 in the short term looks possible, while support is placed at 35500. Weakness might resume if Nifty IT falls below 35500. Overall, I see IT in a sideways-to-positive range rather than a sustained rally.Now that we have seen two weeks of expiry days swapping between BSE and NSE. What is your overall reading of the shift? What impact can you see on volumes and premiums?The expiry-day swapping is still in a price discovery phase. Initially, we are seeing fragmentation of volumes as traders adjust to the new system. Over time, liquidity will likely concentrate where cost-efficiency and transparency are better. Premiums may remain volatile in the short run, but in the long term, competition could bring efficiency and narrower spreads.From whatever we have heard on the Street, Sebi is considering ending weekly expiries. Do you think it would be a good idea to control the F&O mess? Is the Indian market ready for long-dated options?Weekly expiries have undoubtedly added speculative froth, but they also provide hedging flexibility and liquidity. Removing them altogether may hurt participation and market depth. Instead, measures like higher margins for short-term trades or curbs on excessive retail leverage could be more effective. As for long-dated options, while they exist globally, the Indian market still lacks depth beyond near-month contracts. So, it may take time before long-dated options gain meaningful traction.BSE shares ended the week 5% lower amid newsflow around more curbs being imposed by Sebi in the derivatives market. Where do you see the stock moving ahead in the week?Following a sharp correction, the stock has formed a bullish harami pattern on the daily chart, indicating an initial sign of recovery in the short term. A sustained rally from the current level looks possible upon a decisive move above 2210. Support on the lower end is placed at 2140. Given the sharp upmove in defence stocks on Friday, would any of them be on your radar in the week ahead? Do you think the rally will sustain?Defence stocks bounced back sharply on renewed hopes around export opportunities and government-led initiatives in the sector. Counters like BEL, BDL, and HAL, which had been moving sideways for the last few months, suddenly saw fresh buying interest. The long-term story for defence remains very strong, but after a sharp one-day rally, some consolidation can’t be ruled out. Having said that, dips in quality names like BEL, BDL, and HAL are likely to attract buyers, so I’d keep them on the radar for sustained momentum.Give us your stock ideas for the week:Buy Railtel at Rs 371.5 CMP. Target price: Rs 400. Stop loss: Rs 360Railtel has seen a smart recovery after taking support around the ₹330 zone. The stock has moved above the 21-day EMA, indicating a shift in momentum on the short-term charts. Volumes have picked up along with price action, suggesting renewed buying interest. RSI has also inched higher and moved above the 50 mark, supporting the bullish bias. Going forward, as long as it sustains above ₹360, the stock may move towards ₹385–400 levels, while immediate support lies at ₹360.Buy Cochin Shipyard above Rs 1,750. Target price: Rs 1,900. Stop loss: Rs 1,700Cochin Shipyard witnessed a strong recovery after a prolonged decline, as the stock surged with heavy volumes on Friday. The price has managed to reclaim the 21-day EMA, reflecting a shift in momentum towards the bulls. On the daily chart, the large bullish candle indicates strong buying interest from lower levels. Meanwhile, the RSI has also moved higher, suggesting rising strength in the trend. Going forward, a sustained move above 1,750 could open the gates for 1,850-1900 on the higher side, while immediate support is placed around 1,700.Buy Bajaj Finance around Rs 980. Target price: Rs 1,050. Stop loss: Rs 944Bajaj Finance Ltd is trading at Rs 1,003.25 on NSE, extending its sharp September rally. The stock has staged a strong recovery from August lows near Rs 850, comfortably trading above the 21-EMA, highlighting a firm bullish trend. However, an RSI above 80 indicates overbought conditions, raising the risk of a near-term pause or profit-booking. Volumes have picked up, confirming strong participation in the upmove. While the trend remains positive, the overextended momentum suggests chances of consolidation before the next leg higher. Fresh longs should be taken on corrections for better risk management.

Gold prices have surged to unprecedented levels in both international and Indian markets, breaching $3,600 per ounce globally and crossing ₹1,09,000 per 10 grams domestically. This historic rally has been driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment. As the world grapples with instability across multiple fronts, gold has reasserted its role as the ultimate safe-haven asset.Global Economic Uncertainty Fuels Safe-Haven DemandThe global economy is navigating a turbulent phase marked by slowing growth, persistent inflation, and volatile trade policies. The U.S. economy is exhibiting signs of strain, with revised job data revealing nearly one million fewer jobs than previously reported. This has triggered fears of a recession, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold. The uncertainty surrounding fiscal and monetary policy, especially under President Trump’s administration, has further intensified market anxiety. Trump’s Ceasefire Initiative Falters in UkrainePresident Donald Trump’s much-publicized promise to end the Russia-Ukraine war has failed to materialize. Despite multiple rounds of negotiations and a brief, partial ceasefire, hostilities have resumed, resulting in devastating consequences. The lack of progress and perceived diplomatic ineptitude has undermined confidence in U.S. leadership, adding to geopolitical instability and bolstering gold’s appeal as a hedge against conflict. Middle East Tensions Escalate After Israeli Strike in QatarIn a dramatic escalation, Israel launched airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar—a country that has long served as a mediator in the Gaza conflict. The attack killed several individuals and drew sharp condemnation from Qatar and other Arab nations. The strike occurred during a meeting to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, further complicating diplomatic efforts and raising fears of broader regional conflict. This geopolitical flashpoint has further fuelled gold’s rally, as investors brace for potential fallout.Emergence of a New Economic Power Bloc Post-SCO SummitThe recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, signalled a potential shift in global economic power dynamics. Leaders from China, Russia, India, and other member states pledged to build a new multilateral framework that challenges U.S.-led institutions. President Xi Jinping’s proposal for a new development bank and financial incentives for SCO members underscore Beijing’s ambition to reshape global governance. This move toward a multipolar world order has heightened uncertainty around the dollar’s dominance, prompting central banks and investors to increase gold holdings as a strategic hedge.U.S. Recession Fears and Tariff-Driven InflationThe Trump administration’s aggressive tariff policies have raised the average effective tariff rate in the U.S. to its highest since 1935. These tariffs have led to higher consumer prices, reduced household income, and increased unemployment. The economic impact of protectionist measures has amplified recession fears, further boosting demand for gold. As inflation remains elevated and growth slows, gold offers a reliable store of value amid deteriorating economic conditions.Expectations of U.S. Interest Rate CutsAmid weakening labour market data and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on September 17. While a 25-basis point cut is almost certain, some analysts are betting on a more aggressive 50 basis point move. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. The anticipation of monetary easing has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge.Resilient Investor and Central Bank DemandInvestor appetite for gold remains robust, with record inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have ramped up gold purchases to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and mitigate geopolitical risks. In India and China, consumer demand is also rising, supported by favourable regulatory changes and cultural affinity for gold. This broad-based demand underscores gold’s enduring appeal across market cycles and geographies.Gold’s meteoric rise in 2025 is not merely a reaction to economic data or interest rate expectations—it reflects a deeper crisis of confidence in global institutions, fiat currencies, and geopolitical stability. As the world confronts a complex web of challenges—from failed peace initiatives and regional conflicts to shifting power blocs and economic headwinds—gold stands out as a beacon of safety and resilience. Unless these uncertainties ease, the rally may still have room to run.(The author Hareesh V is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited. Views are own)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

The debt mutual funds have seen an outflow of Rs 7,979 crore in August against an inflow of Rs 1.06 lakh crore in July. In August 2024, debt mutual funds received an inflow of Rs 45,169 crore.According to an analyst, this sharp reversal from robust inflows in July was primarily driven by significant redemptions in liquid funds and institutional investors have trimmed their allocations ahead of advance tax payments and quarter end liquidity needs.Also Read | Mutual fund cash holdings slip below 5% to 9-month low in August; PPFAS, Kotak MF raise stakes“Open-ended debt mutual funds witnessed net outflows of INR 7,980 crore in August 2025, a sharp reversal from the robust inflows of INR 1.07 lakh crore seen in July. The decline was primarily driven by significant redemptions in the liquid fund category, which saw a pullback after last month’s surge. Institutional investors trimmed allocations ahead of advance tax payments and quarter-end liquidity needs, underscoring the category’s sensitivity to short-term cash management cycles,” according to Nehal Meshram, Senior Analyst – Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India.Among the 16 sub-categories, most of the categories saw outflows except for overnight funds, ultra short duration funds, low duration, money market, short duration, medium duration, and gilt fund with 10-year constant duration.Overnight funds received the highest inflow of Rs 4,950 crore in August, followed by money market funds receiving an inflow of Rs 2,210 crore in the same time period. Medium-duration funds received the lowest positive inflow of Rs 111 crore in the mentioned period.Liquid funds witnessed the highest outflow of Rs 13,350 crore in August, followed by gilt funds which saw an outflow of Rs 928 crore in the same period.The expert adds that while liquid funds dragged overall flows into negative territory, other segments continued to attract investor interest. Nehal said that the overnight funds witnessed inflows maintaining their appeal as a safe and instantly accessible investment option and the money market funds, which had recorded record inflows in July, saw moderated inflows, reflecting a natural slowdown after months of elevated additions.In the current calendar year so far, debt funds have received a total inflow of Rs 2.19 lakh crore whereas in the current financial year, these funds have received an inflow of Rs 3 lakh crore.Also Read | Largecap mutual funds see highest jump in monthly inflows by 33% to Rs 2,834 crore in August. Are investors chasing safety? The expert believes that investor appetite for shorter-duration carry strategies remained robust, with categories offering stability, liquidity, and modest accrual continuing to find favor. “Short Duration, Low Duration, and Ultra Short Duration funds collectively attracted nearly Rs 1,416 crore, signaling a steady preference for low-volatility accrual strategies. In contrast, Corporate Bond Funds and Banking & PSU Funds faced combined outflows of approximately Rs 1,625 crore, as investors likely booked profits and shifted focus to more liquid, shorter-tenor options,” she added.According to a monthly note by Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the AUM of open-ended debt funds declined marginally by 0.2% on-month to Rs 18.71 lakh crore in August from Rs 18.76 lakh crore in July, which can partly be attributed to outflows during the month.