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Rupee strengthens for third day, closes at 88.05 vs US Dollar on Fed cut hopes

1 month ago
The Indian rupee inched up higher for the third consecutive day, closing Tuesday 16 paise because of broader dollar weakening ahead of the start of US Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meet, dealers said.The local currency closed at 88.0525 per dollar against Monday’s close of 88.21/1$, tracking gains in Asian currencies. Positive local equity market, which ended higher, also buoyed sentiment for the rupee.Meanwhile, the dollar fell to multi-month lows against currencies like the euro and Australian dollar with the dollar index falling below 97-mark during Asian trade. This is on the back of firmer expectation of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee, post conclusion of its two-day meet on Wednesday. The decision will be detailed post India market hours. Optimism also stemmed from a US trade delegation currently in India, with hopes mounting for progress on resolving lingering tariff disputes. The rupee, which last week hit a record low of 88.4425 per dollar, continues to underperform relative to its regional peers because of ongoing trade tensions with the US.Currency dealers are also tracking movement in offshore Chinese yuan, which has been gaining ground as Beijing adopts a more flexible approach, allowing market forces to influence its value. Emerging market currencies stand to gain from stronger yuan. A Bloomberg analysis shows that over the past year, for every 1% yuan move, the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, Chilean peso, Mexican peso and Brazilian real have moved closely in tandem.“Improved risk sentiment (on hopes of U.S. rate cuts) supports “riskier” Asian currencies. But there’s caution — sticky inflation in many places, geopolitical tensions, and Chinese growth worries limit how far gains go,” said Finrex Treasury Advisors.

Russia may cut oil output over drone fears

1 month ago
Russia's oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine's drone attacks on critical export ports and refineries, three industry sources said on Tuesday. Kyiv has stepped up attacks on Russian energy assets since August in a bid to impede Moscow's war effort in Ukraine and reduce the Kremlin's revenues as attempts to secure an end to the conflict through peace talks have stalled. Oil and gas revenues have accounted for between a third and half of Russia's total federal budget proceeds over the past decade, making the sector the single most important source of financing for the government. Ukrainian drones have hit at least 10 refineries - cutting Russia's refining capacity by almost a fifth at one point - and damaged its leading Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, Ukrainian military officials and Russian industry sources said. Russian authorities have not publicly commented on the extent of the damage or its impact on production and exports. However, Transneft, which handles more than 80% of all the oil extracted in Russia, has in recent days restricted oil firms' ability to store oil in its pipeline system, two industry sources close to Russian oil firms told Reuters. Transneft has also warned producers it may have to accept less oil if its infrastructure sustains further damage, the two sources said. The attacks could force Russia, which accounts for 9% of global oil production, to ultimately cut output, said the two sources and a third source familiar with oil pumping operations. The three sources asked not to be named due to sensitivity of the issue. Transneft did not answer requests for comment. DRONE STRIKES: 'THE FASTEST WORKING SANCTIONS'?The West has imposed successive waves of sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, focusing heavily on its oil and gas sector. But Moscow has managed to re-route most oil exports to Asia, where India and China are its primary buyers. Last week, Ukrainian drones hit Russia's biggest oil port of Primorsk for the first time since the war began in 2022, temporarily forcing operations there to shut down. Primorsk has capacity to export more than 1 million barrels of oil per day, or more than 10% of Russia's total oil production. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the strikes had inflicted significant damage and called attacks on Russian oil infrastructure "the sanctions that work the fastest". Reuters could not verify the extent of the damage from the strikes. Russia, unlike leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia, does not have significant capacity to stockpile oil. Primorsk partially resumed operations on Saturday, though it remained unclear how long it may take to complete full repairs, the two sources said. Russian had already lost some oil exporting capacity following another drone attack targeting the Ust-Luga oil terminal on the Baltic Sea in August, according to industry sources. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+ - have been increasing production since April after years of cuts aimed at supporting the oil market. Under the latest OPEC+ agreement, Russia's oil production quota is due to rise to 9.449 million barrels per day this month from 9.344 million bpd in August. "Russia's ability to ramp up oil production is now under threat due to limited storage capacity," U.S. bank J.P. Morgan said in a note. Refinery outages, meanwhile, will also weigh on production due to crude storage congestion from lower refinery runs, Goldman Sachs wrote. Both banks said production will decline only modestly as Asian buyers still had appetite for Russian crude.

Tata Motors shares fall for 2nd consecutive session as JLR extends production halt

1 month ago
Shares of Tata Motors fell by over a per cent to their day’s low of Rs 705 on the NSE after its British subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover announced an extension of the current pause in production until Wednesday, September 24. With today’s fall, the stock price is down for a second session in a row.“We have taken this decision as our forensic investigation of the cyber incident continues, and as we consider the different stages of the controlled restart of our global operations, which will take time. We are very sorry for the continued disruption this incident is causing, and we will continue to update as the investigation progresses,” JLR’s official website read.JLR did not disclose the details on what kind of data was affected but said it had informed relevant authorities."Our forensic investigation continues at pace and we will contact anyone as appropriate if we find that their data has been impacted," the company saidThe British carmaker last week shut down its systems to mitigate the breach's impact. Furthermore, the company has not provided a definitive timeline for full operational recovery.Tata Motors reported a 63% decline in its Q1 consolidated net profit to Rs 3,924 crore, compared to Rs 10,514 crore in the year-ago period. The company’s total revenue from operations stood at Rs 1.04 lakh crore, down 0.3% from Rs 1.07 lakh crore reported in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Also read: India's most hated stocks now contra bets for Rs 75 lakh crore mutual fund industry. Here's whyThe company said the demand environment is expected to remain challenging, and Tata Motors will focus on strengthening business fundamentals while mitigating tariff impacts through brand leverage, an improved product mix, and targeted actions to enhance contribution margins.At about 2:30 pm, Tata Motors’ stock price was quoting at Rs 711, lower by 0.2% from the last close on the NSE. Shares of the company are down over 28% in the last year.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Investor Playbook: Mayuresh Joshi maps out key opportunities in these 4 sectors

1 month ago
In the run-up to the GST implementation, the auto pack has been buzzing with renewed vigour. Analysts believe that rate rationalisation is set to provide a major boost to the industry, with several auto majors already upgrading their outlook.“If you probably look at a lot of management commentaries post the GST rationalisation that has happened, companies like Maruti, companies like Hyundai India have clearly indicated that where they had forecasted a negative volume growth before the GST rationalisation kicked in, they are now looking at a very positive volume growth. So, anywhere between 6% to 10% in terms of positive volumes being played out,” said Mayuresh Joshi in an interview to ET Now.He added that once the Shradh season concludes and GST rates take effect from the 22nd, demand recovery should be visible. “As numbers start kicking in, the sector will still remain in focus. So, we continue our holdings on stocks like Hyundai and Maruti in the four-wheeler pack and TVS Motor in the two-wheeler pack,” Joshi said.Auto ancillaries, he noted, could be the real outperformers. “Auto ancs as a space is something that we are looking at this juncture. A few stocks that we like in Marketsmith India are stocks like SJS, as an example, where our belief is that the content per vehicle will be significantly higher. Uno Minda is one more stock which might actually be a trigger for earnings growth going forward,” Joshi explained.Diagnostics: A Dark Horse in Krsnaa DiagnosticsTurning to the diagnostics sector, Joshi highlighted the structural growth potential, especially for standalone nationwide players. “Our own sense is that the kind of openings that they have probably done in terms of their labs, the ROCE has obviously remained subdued. But as these labs achieve maturity over the next 12 to 18 months, the kind of incremental additions can be significant,” he said, singling out Krsnaa Diagnostics as a potential dark horse.Dr Lal PathLabs, with its healthy balance sheet and expansion plans, also remains well-placed. “The standalone diagnostic chains with a nationwide presence should continue doing well in my opinion,” he said.Quick Commerce: Innovation Amid Expensive ValuationsIn the quick commerce space, Joshi acknowledged both the growing consumer habit and the competitive challenges. “They are tempting us to even order more, so that is the whole take that is probably expected to take place in the landscape,” he quipped.He pointed out that backend strength and infrastructure would be decisive. “The dynamics in terms of EBITDA and bottom line should also positively change with better volumes coming through. However, the only issue that I have is prices have moved a bit too much, valuations are way, way, way too expensive,” Joshi warned.Read more: This smallcap stock jumps 40% in just 5 trading sessions. Should you book profits?Power Financiers: Long-Term Role IntactThe recent movement in PFC and REC stocks has also caught attention, and Joshi remains optimistic on the segment. “Over the next 10 years, the kind of capex that will be required in terms of all the projects that the central government is probably planning when it comes to renewables, you are going to need massive investments expected to come through,” he said.He added that both PFC and REC are expected to play a “key and pivotal role” in funding these projects. “The longer-term picture is probably very robust, and they will play a key and a pivotal role. Obviously, let us not forget the dividend yield that both these stocks have to offer,” Joshi concluded.
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