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The global trade landscape remains uncertain, with mounting questions around the future of US tariffs and their broader economic impact. Despite optimism that trade disputes might be easing, experts caution the conflict is far from over.Jahangir Aziz in an interview with ET Now pointed to the legal fragility of tariffs, saying, “Markets think the trade war is settled. It is not. Most tariffs were imposed under the IEEPA Act, and US courts have already ruled them illegal. The case is now with the Supreme Court. If it upholds the rulings, the basis of most tariffs will collapse, and trade deals will unravel.”He added that Washington could still reimpose tariffs, but the “countries, sectors, and scale would all look different.”Concerns about global growth continue. Aziz explained, “Since late last year, the slowdown has been masked. Companies frontloaded imports, corporates absorbed tariff costs on their margins, and the tech cycle has been unusually strong. But margins cannot absorb costs forever—by the fourth quarter, inflation will rise, consumption will slow, and the labour market will weaken.”The technology boom, he noted, has temporarily hidden underlying weakness. “The tech cycle is independent of the business cycle, but how long it lasts is uncertain. Once it slows, the hidden pressures will become more visible.”On the deficit debate, Aziz was clear that tariffs offer little relief. “Tariffs and the trade deficit are separate issues. A half-percent rise in the US fiscal deficit will need funding. If it comes from foreign borrowing, the current account deficit widens. If funded domestically, savings must rise, but then consumption or investment will fall, slowing growth. There is no free lunch.”As Washington awaits the Supreme Court’s ruling, the stakes are high. A decision against tariffs could reset global trade relations, while the US continues to grapple with the balancing act between fiscal spending, domestic savings, and growth.

Gold bulls were in buoyant mood on Monday with domestic yellow metal prices surging 1.2% or by 1,343 per 10 gram to new lifetime high of Rs 1,11,190. The beginning of Navratris, US Federal Reserve's monetary easing and US President Donald Trump's H1-B visa row collectively lifted sentiments for bullion.Gold extended this year's gains to 45% or Rs 34,300 per 10 grams while in September, its rally was to the tune of 7% or Rs 7,366.Around 2 pm today, the October gold futures on the MCX were trading at Rs 1,11,127, rising by Rs 1,280 or 1.2%. The prices of gold were trading at $3,748.20 per troy ounce, gaining by $42.40 or over 1% on the COMEX around this time.MCX silver contracts too hit their fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,32,665 per kg, rising by 2.2% or Rs 2,827. Silver's shine has outgrown gold so far this year. The domestic price of white metal has risen 52% in 2025, getting dearer by Rs 45,002 per kg. In September so far, the rally has been 10% or Rs 11,900.Both gold and silver have been the best performing asset class in 2025, significantly outperforming equities. Not just the festival fervour, gold has got a fresh impetus on Fed's 25 bps rate cut and Trump's latest H1-B visa proclamation to introduce a $100,000 fee for new applications has stirred the hornet's nest, bringing a cloud of uncertainty for global IT companies, especially India. "The bullion is expected to remain supported by firm festive demand in Asia, while ETFs and central banks continue to remain net buyers. Safe-haven buying remains mixed at current high prices," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services said, commenting on the current trends and bullion's outlook.Anuj Gupta, Director at Ya Wealth Global Research sees further upside to the rally during the festive season and recommends buy on both gold and silver.Gold and silver trading strategy:Buy MCX gold at Rs 1,10,000 with a stop loss of Rs 1,08,000 and target of Rs 1,13,000-1,15,000Buy MCX silver at Rs 1,30,000 with a stop loss of Rs 1,27,000 and target of Rs 1,35,000-1,37,000(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has initiated an anti-dumping investigation on imports of copper data cables from China. The probe follows an application by Birla Cable and Sterlite Technologies. DGTR said there is prima facie evidence that the product under consideration is being dumped into the Indian market by Chinese exporters.Copper data cables usually comprise twisted pairs of copper conductors, insulated with polyethylene or other sheathing material, with or without the inclusion of braiding, drain wire, individual and/or overall foil shield, and a separator, used for the transmission of data and signals over local area networks (LAN).The investigation will examine imports during the financial year 2024-25. The injury period for the investigation covers fiscal 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, and 2024-25.DGTR said applicants have also provided prima facie information regarding the injury suffered by the domestic industry because of dumped imports. “The applicants have claimed that the imports have suppressed and depressed the prices of the domestic industry,” the trade remediation body said in the dumping investigation initiation notification.It is alleged that copper data cable imports have entered at prices below the cost of sales and the selling price of the domestic industry. This has adversely impacted the profitability of the domestic industry.“The cash profits of the domestic industry have declined over the injury period, and it has earned a low return on capital employed,” the notification read while listing the concerns flagged by applicants.

US President Donald Trump's move to introduce a $100,000 fee for new H-1B visa applications is large enough to make sending Indian software engineers to the US economically unviable for Indian tech companies. While the top five Indian IT firms derive roughly 55% of their revenue from the US, Infosys is estimated to have the highest share of employees on H-1B visas.According to estimates by Jefferies, Infosys had 3.3% of its employees under an H-1B visa in 2024, higher than TCS' 2.2%. Hexaware is the second largest share at 3%, followed by LTI Mindtree at 2.5%. Others like HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra vary between 2-2.3%.Infosys also tops the list of companies with the highest revenue share from H-1B visa employees in 2024 at 11.5%. Hexaware was second at 10.4%, followed by LTIMindtree at 8.8%, Coforge 8.5%, HCL Tech 8%, TCS 7.7% and Wipro 7.5%."The US government's move to introduce a $100K fee for new H1B applications will entirely offset EBIT per H1B employee, driving a shift away from H1B usage toward local hiring, subcontracting, and near/offshoring," warned Jefferies analyst Akshat Agarwal. "The talent supply crunch will drive up onsite wages, which could drag profits by 4-13%."Also Read | $100,000 H-1B visa fee shock: How it could hit Indian IT giants & reconfigure tech outsourcingThe fee's impact becomes stark when viewed against IT firms' economics. Indian software companies typically bill onsite employees at $150,000-$200,000 annually while earning roughly 10% margins, translating to just $15,000-$20,000 in annual EBIT per H-1B worker.With Trump's $100,000 fee effectively wiping out five to six years of profits from a single visa holder, the math no longer works. Given H-1B visas are capped at six years maximum, "IT firms are likely to shift away from H1B visas," Jefferies concluded.Nuvama estimates put the scale of exposure in human terms: Infosys may have 12,000-15,000 employees on H-1B visas, compared to TCS's 10,000-12,000.Among mid-tier players, Hexaware faces the second-highest revenue exposure at 10.4%, followed by LTIMindtree at 8.8% and Coforge at 8.5%. TCS, despite its larger workforce, has a lower revenue dependency at 7.7%.The fee structure forces a fundamental rethink of operating models that have powered India's IT boom for decades. Companies face four alternatives: hire locals, use subcontractors, near-shore work to Mexico or Canada, or offshore to India."If an IT company were to apply for 5,000 H-1Bs in FY27, the annual fee alone would amount to $500 million," calculated Motilal Oswal. "Given the magnitude of this fee, it is likely that Indian IT companies will avoid new H-1B filings altogether."Since H-1B visa lotteries typically run in Q4-Q1, the first impact would hit FY27 petitions.Not all analysts view the development as catastrophic. Nomura's Abhishek Bhandari struck a measured tone: "We believe the impact of the changes in H-1B visa program is going to be negligible over the next one year." He noted that localization efforts since Trump's first term have already reduced H-1B dependency, with most companies now having over 60% local hiring versus 25-30% in 2016.JM Financial went further, calling the development "net positive" despite potential margin hits of 15-50 basis points. "With one of the biggest regulatory overhangs now behind, this event is net positive, in our view," the firm stated.Nuvama echoed this optimism, noting that "Indian IT firms have significantly reduced their reliance on H-1B visas over the last eight years, with less than half of the US workforce dependent on H-1B visas."Moody's Ratings said steady global demand for IT services will help offset some of the rising costs. "Large IT firms like Tata Consultancy Services (Baa1 stable) and Infosys Limited (Baa1 stable) are better equipped to manage these pressures because of their higher profitability, strong balance sheets and increased focus on local hiring over the last few years," said Sweta Patodia, AVP, Moody's Ratings.The top five Indian IT firms derive roughly 55% of their revenue from the US market, making Trump's visa policies a make-or-break issue for the sector. Currently, only about 20% of employees work onsite, of which 20-30% hold H-1B visas—meaning visa holders represent just 3-5% of the typical vendor's workforce.But their revenue contribution far exceeds their numbers. Jefferies estimates that H-1B employees deliver 7-12% of total revenues across the sector.As the industry braces for FY27, when the first wave of $100,000 fees hits, the question is how quickly India's IT titans can adapt their decades-old playbook to survive Trump's new reality.