ET NEWS

U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009, a report said on Thursday, adding to evidence of a labor market standstill as the demand and supply of workers fall because of policy and technology advances. The report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas does not normally attract much attention. But together with other private data, it has become more prominent due to a U.S. government shutdown that has led to major economic releases being suspended, including the closely watched employment report for September that was due on Friday. The 15th government shutdown since 1981, which will lead to the furlough of 750,000 federal workers, has also delayed the publishing of the weekly jobless claims report, August factory orders and construction data. The trade report is also likely to be affected. Challenger, Gray & Christmas said planned job cuts dropped 37% month-on-month to 54,064 in September. Employers have so far this year announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest year-to-date since 2020. Hiring plans so far this year have totaled 204,939, the lowest year-to-date since 2009 when the economy was just emerging from the Great Recession. LABOR MARKET IS STAGNATING "Right now, we're dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases and a transformative new technology," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring." The Federal Reserve resumed easing policy last month, cutting its benchmark overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00%-4.25% range, to aid the labor market. Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Donald Trump's trade policy, immigration raids and the rise of artificial intelligence, have combined to reduce demand and labor supply. Nonfarm payroll gains averaged only 29,000 jobs per month in the three months to August compared to 82,000 during the same period last year. Challenger said the government accounted for the bulk of planned layoffs, with 299,755 job cuts announced so far this year, part of an unprecedented campaign by the White House to reduce the federal workforce. Trump threatened to fire more federal workers if there was a shutdown. The surge in AI is costing jobs in the technology sector, with companies in the industry announcing 107,878 layoffs so far this year. Challenger said AI was also making it difficult to land positions, particularly for entry-level engineers. Should the shutdown persist into next week, September's consumer price, retail sales, housing starts and producer inflation reports will probably not be published, impacting decision making by households, investors and policymakers.

Housing sales in Mumbai region and Pune dropped 17 per cent in July-September period to 49,542 units on lower demand amid a sharp surge in prices of residential properties, according to PropEquity. Sales stood at 59,816 units in the year-ago period. In its latest report, real estate data analytics firm PropEquity pointed out that sales in the primary housing market of Thane in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) saw a 28 per cent decline in sales to 14,877 units from 20,620 units. In Mumbai city, sales dipped 8 per cent to 9,691 units from 10,480 units, while Navi Mumbai witnessed a 6 per cent fall to 7,212 units from 7,650 units. In Pune, a key housing market in Maharashtra, the housing sales fell 16 per cent to 17,762 units during July-September 2025 from 21,066 units in the corresponding period of the preceding year. Commenting on the market scenario of MMR, realtors apex body CREDAI's Mumbai chapter said that fall in sales during the September quarter was not a cause for concern and the demand would bounce back in the festive season, which started from September 22.* Sukhraj Nahar, President of CREDAI-MCHI said, "While Q3 reflected a period of market recalibration, the demand drivers for housing in MMR and Pune remain extremely robust. Infrastructure upgrades like Metro corridors, coastal roads, and NMIA continue to act as strong long-term catalysts." With sales still outpacing new launches in many sub-markets, this phase represents a healthy adjustment rather than a cause for concern, he added. "Historically, festival quarters in Maharashtra have always revived momentum, and we expect a similar trend this year," Nahar said. Rushi Mehta, Secretary of CREDAI-MCHI noted that the end-user demand is intact. "Short-term fluctuations are largely due to high base effect and cautious launches. Developers are aligning supply with genuine demand, which will ensure long-term market stability," he explained. Nikunj Sanghavi, Treasurer of CREDAI-MCHI, noted that MMR and Pune together still account for nearly half of India's housing market, underlining their dominance. Investor confidence remains strong, supported by stable interest rates and regulatory clarity under RERA, he said. "We believe the second half of FY25 will see an uptick in absorption, aided by festive demand and policy push towards affordable and mid-segment housing," Sanghavi said. According to PropEquity, the housing sales in India's top 9 cities fell 4 per cent YoY (year-on-year) and 1 per cent QoQ (quarter on quarter) to 1,00,370 units in the July-September period. The top 9 cities are Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Kolkata and Delhi-NCR.

Dubai’s real estate market continues to strengthen its position as one of the world’s most dynamic investment destinations, delivering exceptional returns alongside unmatched lifestyle benefits. As traditional hubs face headwinds, Dubai has emerged as a compelling choice for investors seeking both capital appreciation and holistic opportunities.In today’s evolving global landscape, Dubai stands out as a center of growth and resilience. While the US grapples with market volatility and political uncertainty, and European markets contend with visa restrictions and economic challenges, Dubai offers something increasingly valuable: a thriving ecosystem supported by world-class infrastructure.The UAE’s business-friendly policies, zero taxation, and progressive legal framework create fertile ground for investors to capitalize on opportunities underpinned by strong fundamentals. Beyond financial returns, Dubai also offers lifestyle benefits, making it attractive not only as an investment hub but also as a second home. The AED’s peg to the US dollar further boosts its appeal for Indian investors, particularly against rupee depreciation.Dubai’s property market hit remarkable milestones in August 2025, with 18,678 transactions worth AED 51.1 billion – a 7.9% year-over-year rise in value and 15.4% growth in volume. The average price per square foot climbed 15.2% annually to AED 1,720, while rental yields continued to outperform global peers. Current rental returns of 10–12% far exceed those in the US or Europe.The Golden Visa program remains a major draw. Unlike Caribbean passport schemes costing $300,000-400,000 with limited benefits, Dubai’s Golden Visa offers 10-year residency plus access to world-class education, healthcare, and business opportunities. This has proven particularly attractive for Indian investors under LRS limits. Indians already form the largest investor group in Dubai property, suggesting significant potential once restrictions ease.Performance remains robust across segments. Apartments led with 15,900 units worth AED 30.2 billion, up 29.2% year-on-year. Villas generated AED 10.9 billion in sales, with prices rising 12.7%, reflecting resilience in the premium segment. The commercial sector recorded AED 1.2 billion in transactions, up 20.4%. Most notably, plot prices surged 86.6%, underscoring land’s appeal as a long-term asset.The new First-Time Home Buyer Programme, launched in July 2025, has already boosted momentum, with transactions crossing AED 90 billion in July–August, a 12% increase year-on-year. Developers including Emaar, Damac, and Nakheel have pledged to allocate at least 10% of units under AED 5 million to first-time buyers, widening access beyond ultra-high-net-worth investors.The rental market continues to rise, with average apartment rents at AED 85,000 (up 6.3%), villa rents at AED 190,000 (up 8.6%), and commercial rents at AED 62,900 (up 6.6%). Combined with Dubai’s tax-free environment, these figures reinforce its unmatched investment appeal.Transaction activity remains strong across established hubs like Business Bay and Jumeirah Village Circle, while newer districts such as Jabal Ali First and Dubai Investment Park Second are gaining traction. Supply is expected to grow, with 70,000 new units slated for completion by end-2025, yet demand is likely to keep pace as Dubai’s population surpasses four million.For ultra-high-net-worth Indian investors, three factors are key: choosing the right advisor, selecting properties with long-term growth potential, and recognizing that Dubai is more than an investment — it’s a global lifestyle upgrade. The market rewards patient investors with 4–5 year horizons, offering consistent benefits from both capital appreciation and rental income.Dubai’s real estate market in 2025 reflects a rare convergence of growth momentum, diverse opportunities, and lifestyle advantages. As global markets evolve, Dubai continues to attract investors who recognize that true wealth creation requires not just returns, but also resilience, infrastructure, and quality of life.For those seeking dynamic opportunities with exceptional potential, Dubai remains one of the world’s most compelling choices.(The author is Executive Director & Head Real Estate, Client Associates and Harpreet Singh Director, SY Capital)(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)