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Markets ended higher for the second consecutive week, with benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex advancing nearly a percent. Sentiment was buoyed by optimism around a GST rate overhaul from the outset and strengthened as the week progressed, though profit booking in the final session trimmed some gains.Meanwhile, foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continued their selling spree in August, offloading equities worth Rs 25,564 crore through the exchanges up to August 23. This took the total equity selling by FIIs this year up to that date to Rs 1,57,440 crore, according to market data.With this, analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:What is your overall view on the markets and where do you think Nifty is headed?Last week, the benchmark index Nifty commenced trading on a robust note, buoyed by a series of encouraging macro and policy developments. The rally was primarily driven by S&P Global Ratings' decision to upgrade India’s sovereign outlook, which bolstered investor confidence in the country’s economic resilience. Additionally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of next-generation GST reforms, expected to be rolled out by Diwali, added further momentum. These reforms aim to simplify the tax structure and reduce the burden on consumers and MSMEs, thereby supporting broader economic growth.The bullish sentiment persisted through the week, propelling the index to a high of 25153 by Thursday. However, despite the strong upward move, Nifty struggled to decisively breach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous corrective phase (from 25669 to 24337). This technical resistance triggered profit booking on Friday, leading to the formation of a bearish candlestick with a pronounced upper shadow, a classic indication of selling pressure at elevated levels.On the daily chart, the index has formed an Evening Star candlestick pattern, which is typically viewed as a bearish reversal signal. This pattern, coupled with the rejection at a key Fibonacci level, suggests that the bulls may be losing grip, and a period of consolidation or a corrective move could be on the cards unless fresh positive triggers emerge. Most noteworthy, during this pullback rally, the RSI failed to cross the 60 mark.Going ahead, the zone of the 100-day EMA of the 24650-24600 level will act as important support for the index. While on the upside, the zone of 25050-25100 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index. Any sustainable move on either side will lead to a trending move in the index. Any expectations from the FIIs based on the Cash and FII Long-Short data?Despite a slight improvement in the FII long-short ratio—from 7.95% on August 13 to 10.70% on August 22, primarily due to some short covering—FIIs continue to hold significant short positions in index futures. Interestingly, the last time the long-short ratio fell below 10% was in March 2023, where it remained at these levels for three consecutive sessions. That period coincided with a market bottom, after which Nifty moved higher.This time, however, the ratio stayed below 10% for as many as 14 trading sessions before inching back above the mark over the past two days. Notably, recent positive developments, such as the S&P Global Ratings upgrade and GST rationalisation, have failed to meaningfully shift FII sentiment. Instead, concerns around the US–India tariff situation, a strengthening dollar against the rupee, and the jitteriness surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium—which could shape the September monetary policy outlook—have kept FIIs in a cautious “wait-and-watch” mode.Cash market flows mirror this sentiment. Since the beginning of August, FIIs have pulled out 25751 crore, following net outflows of 47667 crore in July. Over the past six weeks, FII activity has consistently reflected bearishness. Yet, despite this heavy selling, Nifty has corrected just 3.11% from its June 30 high of 25669. The resilience is largely due to strong domestic institutional investor (DII) support, with inflows of 66184 crore since August 1. Even in July, when FIIs sold 47667 crore, DIIs stepped in with purchases worth 60939 crore, cushioning the market from a deeper correction.Historically, the week leading up to monthly expiry often witnesses sharp swings in the long-short ratio, especially on expiry day itself. Should FIIs begin to cover shorts and resume buying in the cash market, Nifty could quickly regain momentum.What is your view on Bank Nifty?Bank Nifty continued to lag behind the broader market indices last week, reflecting persistent weakness in banking stocks. After hitting a weekly high of 56156, the index witnessed a sharp decline of over 1000 points, eventually closing at 55150, down 0.35% for the week. On the weekly chart, this move resulted in the formation of a sizeable bearish candle, highlighting the dominance of sellers during the week.The relative underperformance is clearly visible in the Bank Nifty/Nifty ratio chart, which has dropped to a 65-day low, underscoring the weakening strength of banking stocks compared to the broader market. Technically, the index is now trading below both its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, with both averages trending downward — a sign of deteriorating short to medium-term momentum.Adding to the bearish tone, the daily RSI is on the verge of slipping below the 40 mark, indicating weakening internal strength and increasing downside risk. Unless there is a strong reversal or supportive news flow, the index may remain under pressure in the near term.Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 54900-54800 will act as immediate support for the index. Any sustainable move below the level of 54800 will lead to further correction in the index upto the level of 54300, followed by the 200-day EMA level of 53544. While on the upside, the zone of 55600-55700 will act as ian mportant hurdle for the index. What is the view on the consumer durable sector now, with the PM's announcement of a reduction in GST?The Nifty Consumer Durable index has shown strong outperformance following the Prime Minister’s announcement on GST reduction, which is expected to boost demand in the sector. The index surged nearly 4% last week, forming a sizeable bullish candle on the weekly chart, indicating renewed investor interest.Technically, the index has moved above its key moving averages on both daily and weekly timeframes, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. The sentiment is further supported by improving momentum indicators, suggesting that the sector is likely to continue its outperformance in the short term, especially if the GST cut translates into improved consumer spending.Is the IT sector regaining strength now?The Nifty IT index showed early signs of recovery last week by closing above its 20-day EMA for the first time since July 2025, which is a positive technical development. However, despite this move, clear strength is still lacking.The overall structure remains tentative, as momentum indicators have yet to confirm a strong bullish reversal, and the index continues to underperform relative to other sectors. A sustained move above the key resistance level (36000), supported by volume and improving RSI, would be needed to confirm a meaningful trend reversal.Which other sectors are you focusing now?Nifty Auto: The index has delivered a strong breakout from a 13-week consolidation range on the weekly chart, signalling renewed bullish momentum. The index has significantly outperformed the frontline indices, surging over 5% in the past week, and reaffirming its leadership within the broader market. This outperformance is further validated by the Nifty Auto/Nifty ratio chart, which has climbed to a 43-week high, indicating sustained relative strength in the auto space. Technically, the index is trading well above its key moving averages on both the daily and weekly timeframes, reflecting a strong underlying trend. Adding to the bullish setup, the weekly RSI has crossed above the 60 mark for the first time since October 2024, a sign of strengthening momentum and growing investor interest in the sector. Given these technical confirmations, Nifty Auto is well-positioned to continue its outperformance in the short term, barring any major market-wide disruptions.Apart from this, Nifty Consumer Durable, Healthcare, Pharma, and India Tourism are likely to continue their outperformance. On the other hand, Nifty CPSE, PSE, and Private Banks are likely to underperform the frontline indices. Any well-placed stocks?Technically, Apollo Tyre, Mphasis, Nykaa, RCF, Dixon, ABFRL and Poonawalla Fincorp are likely to continue their northward journey.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, sees Nifty sustaining its short-term uptrend as long as it holds above 24,800, with potential to climb towards 25,000–25,250. While Bank Nifty remains weak, he highlights UNO Minda and Lupin as bullish picks for the week, alongside a sell call on Axis Bank.Edited excerpts from a chat:After Nifty broke its 6-day-long winning streak on Friday, how bearish or bullish are you for the outlook ahead of the August series expiry next week?After several days of gains, Nifty took a breather on Friday, resembling a pause before the next leg of the up move. The index has been sustaining above the 50 EMA, confirming a short-term uptrend. On the downside, support is placed at 24,800; as long as it holds above this level, the trend is likely to remain strong with potential to rise towards 25,000/25,250.Nifty Bank erased all its gains during the week. What are your targets for the holiday-shortened week ahead?The Bank Nifty continues to underperform the Nifty, posting a lackluster performance during the week. On the daily chart, the index has broken below its recent consolidation and slipped under the 50 EMA. On the weekly chart, it has declined towards the 20 EMA, where it is expected to find support and attempt a reversal. However, if it falls below 54,950, it may extend the decline towards 54,500. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 55,500, and sentiment is likely to remain weak as long as the index trades below this level.Ever since Sebi's Jane Street order came out, the market has seen some impact on F&O volumes, particularly on expiry days. Once BSE and NSE expiry day swap comes into effect from September, what do you think could be the impact on volumes?Immediately after the ban, volumes saw a sharp decline of about 30%. While they eventually recovered to some extent, they have not returned to pre–Jane Street levels. In the short term, a negative impact on volumes may still be felt; however, in the long run, broader participation is likely to drive higher volumes as traders increasingly utilize both NSE and BSE expiries.And how would your Nifty trading strategy shift once we have Tuesday expiries? Do you think that the first few weeks of the shift could be stressful for traders?With the shift to Tuesday expiries, the trading strategy for Nifty options will need some adjustment. The first few weeks may indeed be stressful for traders as they adapt to the new cycle. Option premiums will likely see the sharpest time decay between Friday and Monday, making Mondays far more dynamic. As a result, Mondays will become the second most important day for Nifty option traders, with positions being actively reviewed or fresh trades initiated ahead of Tuesday’s expiry.Ola shares were among the top gainers in the week. Do you think the momentum will sustain?On the weekly chart, Ola has failed to close above the important average 20EMA on the weekly chart, this is a bit negative for the price trend. However, if the stock moves above 48 in the early days of the next week it might move towards 54/56. On the other hand, support is placed at 46.60. Give us your top ideas for the week aheadBuy UNO Minda at ₹1266 | Target: ₹1330 | Stop Loss: ₹1219The stock has moved higher after a brief consolidation on the daily chart, indicating renewed optimism. It is trading comfortably above the 50 EMA, confirming a bullish trend, while the RSI has entered a bullish crossover following the breakout. In the near term, the trend is expected to remain positive with potential upside towards 1,330. On the downside, support is placed at 1,219.Buy Lupin @ ₹1970 | Target: ₹2050 | Stop Loss: ₹1924Following a bullish harami pattern formation the stock moved up higher which is an indication of bullish reversal. The price has been sustaining above important 50EMA. The RSI is in bullish crossover. In the short term, the stock might move towards 2030-2050. While, a support is palced at 1924.Sell Axis Bank @ ₹1070 | Target: ₹1040 | Stop Loss: ₹1086The stock has slipped from its recent consolidation, suggesting growing bearish sentiment. Moreover, it has been trading below the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe. The RSI is on the verge of a bearish crossover. In the short term, the stock may drift lower towards 1,040, while on the upside, resistance is placed at 1,086.

Global markets ended the week on a firm note as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank remains open to cutting interest rates in the near term, raising hopes of a September move. His remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium lifted sentiment across Wall Street, with spillover effects seeming to be priced in on Asian and European markets.In India, Gift Nifty futures closed higher at 25,000, up 121 points or 0.49%, suggesting a possible recovery in the next session. However, the cash market reflected caution as the BSE Sensex ended at 81,306.85, down 693.86 points or 0.85%, while the Nifty 50 slipped 0.85% to 24,870.10.Investors reacted warily to Powell’s emphasis on a data-dependent approach, with IT, financials and real estate among the worst-hit sectors given their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and domestic rate expectations.In contrast, U.S. markets rallied strongly on Friday, with the Dow Jones climbing 846.24 points, or 1.89%, to a record 45,631.74. The S&P 500 rose 96.74 points, or 1.52%, to 6,466.91, while the Nasdaq advanced 396.22 points, or 1.88%, to 21,496.53.The rebound helped the S&P 500 snap a five-day losing streak after a broad selloff in heavyweight technology stocks earlier in the week. Traders sharply increased their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability rising to nearly 90% from about 75% before Powell’s comments.Earlier in the day, among the Asian markets, the Asia Dow gained 0.74% to 4,793.71, Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.05% to 42,633.29, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.93% to 25,339.14, and the Shanghai Composite rose 1.45% to 3,825.76.In his Jackson Hole address, Powell acknowledged signs of softening in the U.S. labor market but stopped short of confirming an imminent cut, reiterating that upcoming inflation and jobs data will be critical.Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, said Powell’s comments raised the likelihood of a September cut and possibly another later in the year, which immediately boosted MCX gold prices as traders seized the opportunity after the dollar weakened. He added that while Powell’s tone delivered short-term bullish momentum, gold remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data and further Fed signals.Powell also pointed out that tariff pressures are feeding into consumer prices, hinting that trade frictions, including with India, could complicate inflation control.He added, “This has heightened fears around the broader economic fallout from Trump’s tariff policies, with Indian exporters already facing increased pressure. For Indian investors, Powell’s speech underscored the importance of watching upcoming US economic data and the September FOMC meeting.”“While he acknowledged signs of softening in the US labor market, Powell stopped short of confirming a rate cut, instead reiterating the Fed’s data-dependent stance. However, the chance of a rate cut in September increased on the back of his speech,” Maxwell said.(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Ajay Khandelwal, Fund Manager at Motilal Oswal AMC, shares his perspective on how India’s equity markets will evolve as the country moves toward its 2047 Viksit Bharat goals. From clean energy and defence to digital platforms and domestic savings, he highlights the big shifts, risks, and investment opportunities ahead.Edited excerpts from a chat:As India moves toward its 2047 Viksit Bharat goals, what are the most significant transformation shifts you anticipate in markets over the next two decades?By 2047, India’s growth will be driven by big shifts — clean energy and power grids, semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, defence production, AI and data centres, healthcare, manufacturing, rising urbanisation, domestic savings in equities, and digital platforms like UPI powering new services.Trump's aggressive tariffs against India can challenge investment themes like China+1, Make in India, and Atmanirbhar Bharat. How do you see the landscape evolving from a markets perspective and does it require a change in strategy?Rising US tariffs will hurt exporters that rely too much on the U.S. and lack pricing power. Instead, investors should focus on Indian companies benefiting from domestic growth, and on exporters like pharma, engineering R&D, and IT that are diversified across regions and less exposed to tariffs. The best picks are financially strong firms with low debt, high returns, and long-term orders, as they can keep growing steadily despite global uncertainty.Which sectors or companies do you believe are currently at critical inflection points, offering special opportunity investments for the coming years?The big opportunities ahead lie in companies supplying critical equipment for power grids and HVDC transmission, renewable energy plus storage systems, and data centers (like cables, cooling, and switchgear). There’s also strong potential in the semiconductor supply chain, defence platforms with long-term orders, rail/metro and freight infrastructure, and healthcare/API-CDMO manufacturers. The focus should be on businesses that already have operational capacity, long-term contracts, strong pricing power, and high returns (18–20%+), while adding exposure as they deliver on execution milestones rather than just news flow.In your view, how does Motilal Oswal AMC’s QGLP philosophy give you an edge when identifying and capturing these opportunities?The QGLP philosophy — Quality, Growth, Longevity, and Price — gives us a disciplined framework to find the right businesses at the right valuations. It ensures we back companies with strong fundamentals and capable management, focus on businesses that can grow for many years, and stay disciplined on what we pay. This balance helps us not just identify big opportunities early, but also hold them through cycles with confidence, while avoiding overpaying in times of hype. That consistency is what gives us an edge.How do you see the Indian equity markets shaping up over the next 12–18 months? In the next 12–18 months, markets should trend up but with some volatility, as strong domestic fundamentals and capital flows offset global worries. Earnings growth will likely broaden in FY26. Many investors found the Q1 earnings season below expectations as signs of broad-based growth were missing. Do you think earnings recovery will come in Q2 or Q3 onwards? From Q2 FY26, growth should pick up with support from festive spending, income tax cuts and GST slab rationalization, while by Q3 the recovery will be wider. Global uncertainty is expected to ease, domestic and export orders will translate into revenue, input costs will stabilize and margin recovery will start playing out.If you had Rs 10 lakh to invest in the market right now, how would you spread it across gold/silver, equities and debt?For a 5+ year horizon, most of the money should be in equities (about 75%) to capture long-term growth, while keeping 15% in debt through a mix of short–medium duration and target-maturity/dynamic funds for stability, and 10% in gold/silver as a hedge against uncertainty.