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Investing in the stock market can often feel like riding a wave of optimism, especially when prices keep soaring to new highs. Investors usually assume that this upward momentum will last indefinitely, much like stretching a rubber band to its limits. However, the rubber band follows a straightforward rule - the more it's stretched, the greater the strain it bears until it eventually snaps back to its original state. Similarly, extended periods of bullish markets eventually give way to corrections as prices revert to their mean levels over time.But how can we pinpoint the mean levels in markets? One effective method is utilizing moving averages. When employing moving averages, we can say that the index is in a bullish trend until its spot closes below the moving average line. We can observe a notable pattern in the Nifty 50 chart below, which spans a weekly timeframe and includes a plotted 100 Weekly Moving Average line. Following each bull run, the index retraces back to its moving average line before initiating another upward trend. This observation underscores the significance of moving averages in determining market trends and mean levels. 109640029If we dive deeper, we might wonder how long a bull market lasts, how to know when it ends, and what are the returns following a bull run. The chart below showcases the continuous span of days the Nifty 50 remained above its 100-day moving average. Remarkably, between 2000 and 2024, the Nifty 50 has sustained a streak of closing above its 100-day moving average for more than 100 consecutive days on 18 occasions. 109640074The table below displays the forward returns of the Nifty 50 index after it closes below its 100-DMA. Over the period from 1990 to 2024, there were 23 occasions where the index sustained a bullish trend for more than 100 consecutive days.On average, these bull runs yielded returns of approximately 34%. It's worth noting that the 1-month forward returns following the end of these bullish streaks tend to be negative, averaging at -1%. However, we can observe positive returns on 3-month and 6-month forward timelines, with average returns of 2% and 4% respectively. 109640087Nifty 50 index has been on a bullish streak for more than 110 consecutive days since November 15, 2023. This aligns with historical trends of prolonged bullish sentiment. However, investors need to exercise caution and avoid assuming that the bullish phase will persist indefinitely. It's prudent for investors to regularly review and churn their portfolios to mitigate the potential negative impacts of a shift to a bearish cycle, which could occur unexpectedly. 109640099Nifty showed a notable upswing of 1.23% during the week and concluded the session at 22,420. The decline in India's VIX (10.92), a measure of market volatility, enhanced the bulls resulting in a positive market outlook. Technically, Nifty sustains its position above the 20 and 50 Simple Moving Averages (SMA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above 52 levels. The support level has shifted higher towards 22,150 followed by 22,100 while resistance stands around the previous all-time high of 22,751. Along with large and mid-caps, the small-caps have also participated in this bull rally, strengthening the market breadth. The ongoing Q4 earnings results may spur more stock-specific actions in the coming sessions. The Global markets remained stable providing further support to the domestic market.

NEW YORK: Former National Enquirer publisher David Pecker testified on Friday at Donald Trump's criminal trial that he suppressed a story about an alleged affair to help Trump's 2016 presidential bid, even though it would have boosted sales of his tabloid. Testifying for a third day, Pecker, 72, agreed with a prosecutor who asked whether it would have been "National Enquirer gold" to publish the story of former Playboy model Karen McDougal's claim that she had an affair with Trump in 2006 and 2007. But Pecker said he opted not to run the story after paying McDougal for it, because it would have hurt the Republican Trump's chances of winning the election over Democrat Hillary Clinton. "You killed the story because it helped the candidate, Donald Trump?" prosecutor Joshua Steinglass asked him. Pecker said yes. The exchange bolstered previous testimony in which Pecker said he worked with Trump's campaign to suppress allegations of adultery at a time when the then-presidential candidate was facing multiple accusations of sexual misbehavior. Pecker was the first witness in the case, which accuses Trump, 77, of falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels. Trump has pleaded not guilty. Pecker testified his tabloid paid for the rights to two such stories he never published, a tabloid practice referred to as "catch and kill." Pecker also alerted Trump that Daniels was looking to sell her story of a sexual encounter with Trump. The defense argues the hush money payment was made to spare Trump's family embarrassment, not to protect his presidential campaign. Trump, a businessman whose first public office was the White House, denies an encounter took place. After Pecker's testimony, prosecutors called two more witnesses to boost their case. Rhona Graff, who worked as Trump's business assistant from 1987 to 2021, testified she once saw Daniels at Trump Tower before he ran for president. She said she heard Trump say he was interested in casting her on "The Apprentice," the reality TV show he hosted. She said the email addresses of Daniels and McDougal were stored in the computer systems of Trump's company. Trump shook her hand when she left the witness stand. Banker Gary Farro testified that Trump's lawyer, Michael Cohen, set up accounts with him shortly before the election for two shell companies, including one that was used to pay Daniels. The trial was scheduled to resume on Tuesday. 'I know what I remember' During cross-examination, Trump lawyer Emil Bove sought to undermine Pecker's credibility. Bove asked Pecker whether he had inaccurately testified that Trump thanked him at the White House for handling the negative news stories. That conflicted with a report by FBI agents who previously interviewed Pecker, which said Trump had not expressed gratitude. Pecker, 72, said the FBI report could be wrong. "I know what I testified to, and I know what I remember," Pecker told the New York court's 12 jurors and six alternates. Bove asked Pecker whether his statements aligned with facts contained in an agreement by the Enquirer's parent company to cooperate with legal authorities to avoid prosecution. Pecker denied any substantial mismatch. Bove also sought to illustrate that Pecker's checkbook journalism was not confined to Trump. Under questioning by Bove on Thursday, Pecker said the Enquirer paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to obtain stories from women who came forward during Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2003 run for California governor to say they had affairs with him. Pecker said the first time he gave Trump a heads up about a negative story was in 1998 in relation to Marla Maples, his wife at the time. Prosecutors say Pecker's arrangement with Trump corrupted the 2016 election. He agreed to cooperate to avoid criminal charges. Trump is the first former president to face criminal charges. The trial, which is expected to run through May, could be the only one of his four criminal prosecutions to be completed before his Nov. 5 election rematch with Democratic President Joe Biden. One of those cases, which charges Trump with trying to overturn his 2020 loss to Biden, has been delayed for months by the U.S. Supreme Court, which signaled on Thursday that it might be open to giving him some immunity from criminal charges. Justice Juan Merchan, who is hearing the New York hush money case, has yet to rule on a request by prosecutors to punish Trump for allegedly violating a gag order that bars him from publicly criticizing witnesses, some court officials and their relatives. Merchan said he would hold a hearing next Thursday to examine what prosecutors say are further gag order violations. Trump could be fined $1,000 for each violation or jailed, though prosecutors say they are not seeking imprisonment at this point.

Mumbai: Analysts at most top brokerages reduced or retained their share price targets on Bajaj Finance after the company's March quarter results showed net interest margins are under pressure, raising concerns over its near-term outlook. The stock fell 7.7% Friday to close at ₹6,731.The average analyst price targets on Bajaj Finance after the fourth quarter results stood at ₹8,477 implying an upside of 20.6% over Friday's closing.Analysts said that the non-banking financial company's (NBFCs) earnings are expected to be adversely impacted due to pressure on NIM, sticky costs, and higher credit costs.Analysts at HSBC said that the NBFC remains firmly in the earnings cut cycle at rich valuations of 21 times FY26 Price-to-Earnings valuations."As the stock remains in earnings cut cycle, it will be difficult to find re-rating triggers, but it could compound still," said analysts Abhishek Murarka, Rahil Shah and Gaurav Sharma in a note.109637944However, Bajaj Finance can avail funding at competitive costs and could gain market share compared to its peers, they said.Nomura said Bajaj Finance reported a 'not-so-rosy quarter' and the outlook remains weak in the near term. While the management expects the cost of funds to peak by July-August 2024 and the regulatory ban on its two products 'eCOM' and 'lnsta EMI Card' to be lifted in FY25, the earnings would remain under pressure."The trends/ FY25 expectations for BAF are in-line with our thesis that FY25F would be a reset year for the entire NBFC space with growth/profitability moderation," said analysts at Nomura.

Mumbai: Shares of Tech Mahindra jumped 7.6% as optimism around the company's three-year growth roadmap outshone concerns over near-term profitability as reflected in the fourth-quarter results, which missed analyst estimates. The stock closed at ₹1,280 and emerged as the top gainer in Nifty on Friday, but the average share price targets mostly suggest limited upside or downside. The average analyst price targets on Tech Mahindra after the fourth-quarter results stood at ₹1,261.3, implying a downside of 1.5% over Friday's closing.Analysts said that the company's new CEO, Mohit Joshi, unveiled a 3-year turnaround plan to exceed industry-leading revenue growth by FY27. "We believe near-term monitorable for the company's progress towards this goal would be immediate margin improvement in FY25 and steady revenue growth improvement in subsequent years," said Nomura in a note.109637899Macquarie said that Tech Mahindra faces a tall task ahead of its FY27 goals and the brokerage prefers peers HCL Tech, TCS and Wipro compared to Tech Mahindra."We appreciate the ambition to grow faster than peer group average by FY27, and the detailed plans that the management has to achieve it, but remain concerned that the 36% exposure to Communications will make it difficult even in FY27," said the brokerage.Analysts at Axis Capital said that while the company addressed client-specific issues and has a strong pipeline, the macroeconomic uncertainties are expected to lead to delays in decision-making for IT budgets."Margins have bottomed out and may gain in the next couple of quarters. However, the demand scenario remains uncertain and may lead to lower revenue growth momentum in the near term," said Axis Capital in a note.

India's state-run firms' output from overseas oil and gas fields marginally rose in 2023-24 after declining for four straight years. The output, however, remained a fifth below the peak of 2018-19 as producing fields matured and no new overseas assets were acquired in recent years.The share of India's state companies in oil and gas production from overseas fields increased to 19.9 million metric tonnes of oil equivalent (MMTOE) in 2023-24 from 19.5 MMTOE in the previous year.Production at Russia's Skahalin-1 project normalised during the financial year, after being badly affected in 2022 following the launch of the Russia-Ukraine war. ONGC Videsh, India's largest investor in overseas oil and gas fields, has a stake in Sakhalin-1, where production had nearly halted for some time following the exit of its operator Exxon, industry executives said.Similarly, production at ONGC Videsh's two projects in South Sudan, which were shut by unprecedented floods previously, resumed in 2023-24, the executives said.109633793Voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, also affect Indian firms' overseas output. Russia, UAE, Azerbaijan and South Sudan are members of OPEC+, a grouping of about two dozen oil-producing countries that jointly coordinate oil production and have been producing less than their capacity. Some of Indian firms' key producing assets are located in these four countries, with Russia accounting for the largest share of production for these firms.Big investments in Russian fields in 2015-16 helped boost Indian firms' overseas output in the past decade. India's overseas output surged two and a half times to 24.7 MMTOE in 2018-19 from 9.9 MMTOE in 2014-15. The output started declining in 2019-20, falling every year until 2022-23, as fields matured. Indian firms also slowed down on acquiring assets after the purchases in Russia and the UAE seven-eight years ago. Some of the exploration and discovered assets they had acquired previously haven't started production. The giant gas field in Mozambique, where ONGC, BPCL and Oil India have invested, is stuck due to the poor law and order situation.

WhatsApp's recent statement in the Delhi High Court regarding breaking message encryption has ignited a debate on the delicate balance between an individual's right to privacy and the government's imperative to uphold national security. This statement was made during a hearing of WhatsApp and Meta's petition challenging a specific rule within the Information Technology (Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code) Rules, 2021.The Controversial RuleRule 4(2) of the IT Rules requires social media companies providing messaging services to disclose the sender of a message upon court or competent authority order. The rule specifies that this information should be disclosed for cases related to national security, public order, or offenses such as rape, sexually explicit material, or child sexual abuse material, which carry a minimum jail term of five years. Additionally, the rule states that such an order should not be issued if less intrusive methods can identify the message originator.WhatsApp's StandWhatsApp, in its petition, has argued against the rule's constitutionality and any potential criminal liability for non-compliance. The company contends that complying with the traceability requirement would necessitate breaking its end-to-end encryption, thereby violating the fundamental rights to privacy and free speech of its users.Advocate Tejas Karia, representing WhatsApp, emphasized the platform's commitment to privacy through end-to-end encryption. He stated that if WhatsApp is compelled to break encryption, the platform would cease to exist.Moreover, Karia highlighted the massive data storage implications of the rule, stating that WhatsApp would be required to store millions of messages for an extended period, without knowing which messages may eventually require decryption.The Court's StanceThe bench, led by Acting Chief Justice Manmohan and Justice Manmeet Pritam Singh Arora, expressed the need for a balanced approach, noting that privacy rights are not absolute. The Central government argued that the rule is necessary to trace message originators in cases involving communal violence.The government also pointed out that WhatsApp and Facebook monetize user information and, therefore, cannot claim absolute privacy protection. It highlighted global efforts to hold Facebook accountable for its data practices.Future ProceedingsThe bench is set to continue hearing the cases on August 14. The outcome of these proceedings could have significant implications for how messaging platforms handle encryption and user privacy in India.