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The dollar remained on the back foot on Friday as global trade frictions and signs of weakness in the U.S. economy supported the case for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.The dollar index is set for its biggest weekly drop in almost three months as an extended shutdown of the U.S. government blocked the publication of key economic data. The yen held on to gains after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke about factors that could lead to a rate increase this month.Compounding concerns about trade, Fed independence and the U.S. shutdown are making the greenback vulnerable to the debasement trade, where investors seek assets that can't easily be devalued, said Pepperstone research strategist Dilin Wu."It's really hard to find a bullish scenario for the dollar index," said Wu. "Instead of betting on any currency by a single sovereign credit, people are rushing into gold, cryptocurrency, and other assets as a risk hedge."The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was little changed at 98.23 and remained on course for a 0.6% slide this week - the biggest five-day retreat since late July.Against the Japanese yen, the dollar weakened 0.2% to 150.12. BOJ Governor Ueda said in Washington on Thursday that the central bank remains ready to increase its key policy rate if the likelihood of its growth and price forecasts materializing increases. BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is due to speak later on Friday.The euro added 0.1% at $1.1701, while sterling also tacked on 0.1% to $1.3446.Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is on board with another interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank's meeting later this month because of the mixed readings on the state of the job market.Stephen Miran, the Fed's newest governor and an economic advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, reiterated support for more aggressive rate cuts at upcoming meetings than the one favored by some of his colleagues. Miran's seat expires at the end of January, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook remains in place as the case over Trump's attempt to fire her winds through the courts.The Fed's Beige Book offered little support to U.S. rates, pointing to emerging signs of economic weakness, including rising layoffs and reduced spending among middle and lower-income households.Trade frictions between Beijing and Washington heated up overnight, with China accusing the U.S. of stoking panic over its rare earth controls, rejecting a White House call to roll back the curbs.In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 0.6% to $108,534.66, and ether rose 1.8% to $3,919.71.

ET Intelligence Group: India's top tier software exporters continued to report a sustained momentum in deal wins including new as well as those up for renewals for the September quarter amid a challenging business environment - rising client requirements to incorporate AI (artificial intelligence) capabilities in IT deliverables and uncertainties pertaining to the impact of US tariffs especially on sectors including consumer, retail and manufacturing which resulted in delayed decision making and slow project ramp ups. A major takeaway from the latest quarterly numbers reported by companies including Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, HCL Tech, and Wipro is that these companies are fast adapting to the technological changes. Each one of them not only have strategies to implement AI capabilities in their services deliverables but are also winning new deals because of that. This at a time when AI has started driving majority of the discretionary IT spending by clients - projects that focus on long-term benefits to the business and customers rather than short-term solutions to keep the business running. While it is too early to declare a successful transition by Indian IT companies into the advanced AI field from the conventional cost arbitrage model, the fact that the deal pipelines of these companies continue to stay strong is noteworthy. What now calls for is certainty on the tariff related issues, which currently hinder long-term decision making.124617924 In addition, the impact of the new H1B visa rules seems to be more of short term in nature as Indian IT companies have been gradually increasing either local or near-shore hiring to reduce their dependence on work visas. Wipro, for instance, hosts nearly 80% of the workforce working for US clients locally. The flip side of this strategy, however, is more pressure on profitability since onsite projects tend to have lower margin. Levers such as improving employee utilisation, tilting services mix to customised solutions, and long-term client engagements to improve wallet share can be used judiciously to protect margins. Among the top tier companies, some seem to have weathered the business challenges better going by the trend in the year-on-year growth of trailing 12 month (TTM) revenue in dollar terms. On this scale, HCLTech has shown a greater resilience though its TTM revenue growth has remained below 5% for the past three quarters. Infosys has staged a smart recovery by improving the TTM growth to 4.5% over the past two quarters from a low of 1.5% a year ago. On the other hand, TCS and Wipro show a higher pressure on the top line growth. Given the deal momentum and the fact that barring TCS, other companies have reported improved hiring in the September quarter, the second half of the current fiscal year is likely to show better performance by the top tier companies. This coupled with weaker rupee may support their stock performance in the medium term.

Mumbai: India's stock indices climbed 1% each on Thursday as the pace of selling by overseas investors slowed, while buyers cheered second-quarter earnings on expectations of a trade truce between Washington and New Delhi. Analysts said the Nifty can inch toward 26,000 levels in the next couple of weeks, but post Diwali, the continuation of gains hinges on the US-India trade deal. The NSE Nifty climbed 1% to 25,585, up 261 points. The BSE Sensex advanced 1%, or 862 points, to 83,467. Nestle India surged 4.8% and emerged as the top gainer in the Nifty pack while Tata Consumer Products and Titan jumped 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. Axis Bank and Kotak Bank rose over 2% each. "Earnings for Axis Bank were better in terms of the operating metrics and loan book growth and the same is expected for Kotak Bank as well," said Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Equity Research, SBI Securities. "The provisional numbers for Titan were also strong." The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points which could drive global funds to chase riskier assets among emerging markets, he said.124617787 "Since India has underperformed in the last 15 months, it could be a value play for them and lead to inflows," said Agrawal. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net ₹997.3 crore on Thursday. Their domestic counterparts bought shares worth ₹4,076.2 crore. Out of the 11 sessions in October so far, global investors have been buyers on five occasions. Foreign flows have changed direction marginally in the last few days and the market seems to be hoping that this is a sign of strong potential inflows, which is supporting the rally, said analysts. "Auto companies reported strong numbers on account of the festive season and the news around US and India inching closer to a negotiation as per President Trump's new statement buoyed the markets higher," said U R Bhat, co-founder & director, Alphaniti. Most sectoral indices ended higher on Thursday. The Nifty FMCG and realty indices jumped around 2% each. Nifty consumer durables index and auto indices gained 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Bank Nifty rose 1.1% and the Nifty Private Bank Index advanced 1.5%. The Nifty Mid-cap 150 and the Small-cap 250 indices advanced 0.5% and 0.4% each on Thursday.

What will the leadership playbook look like in an age marked by geopolitical upheaval and technological disruption? A power-packed panel at the Economic Times 40 Under Forty awards ceremony agreed that a blend of agility, empathy and uncompromising execution will help leaders adapt to a rapidly changing world.Fashion designer Masaba Gupta, who is part of the 2025 Class of 40 Under Forty, said leadership today requires "going back to the drawing board". Best practices, she argued, can sometimes become barriers. "You have to keep the agility of a young brand alive but execute faster," she said.When asked what modern leadership today gets wrong, Shuva Mandal, partner, Anagram Partners, said many businesses remain "tone-deaf" to changing realities, both inside and outside their organisations. "What is the pulse with the community, with your people? Too often, people only want to hear what they want to hear. The bracket of those who genuinely welcome advice is very small," he said. 124614444 The conversation turned to the ethical use of AI, a topic that has reshaped boardroom priorities across industries. Ameera Shah, executive chairperson of Metropolis Healthcare, cautioned against adopting technology for optics. "It's good to embrace the new, but not just for the sake of a buzzword. In healthcare, I wouldn't let AI diagnose reports, and the data and algorithms just aren't there yet. But AI will absolutely transform productivity and how doctors spend time," she said.As Geetika Mehta, managing director, Nivea India, said that while AI now drives insights and product development, human intuition remains central to brand building. "We use AI to understand the consumer pulse and personalise engagement at scale. But the final decision still rests with the people. There is still that element of intuition and creativity that is needed," she said. 124614477 Gupta, too, acknowledged AI's disruption in the fashion industry, particularly in graphic design, product development and R&D, but said it cannot replace human sensibility. She noted that when it comes to storytelling, an AI-generated copy lacks the soft touch of a human. "I think that there is a very famous quote that is doing the rounds: you are not going to be replaced by AI. You are going to be replaced by AI if you don't learn how to use it well to your advantage," she said, adding that her teams follow clear guardrails on when to use AI and when to rely on their own judgement.As the discussion widened to global realignments and reorder, Shah underlined the need for anticipation and scenario planning. "Leaders can't be punters. Our job is to build scenarios and say, if it goes in this way, am I ready? Anticipating risk and planning your next steps is a very critical part of governance to protect the business." 124614488 Shah said when the world is shifting, one has to be ready to embrace any pivot that may be needed to correct the business. "We have seen businesses in the last six months completely stop because of the (US) tariffs. We knew the tariffs were coming... but there were many people who just sort of said, 'Oh, it's not coming', and now they have gone bust."On the nationalist sentiment in India, Mehta cited a recent closed-door meeting with the government where 'Make in India' was the centre of the agenda. "Here in India, we have our own factory. But I think the reality is that a lot of companies today do use their global networks to make in a few places and sell elsewhere. And with this protectionism coming through, it could potentially impact (businesses)." 124614511 Mandal said while geopolitics is not a leadership issue, businesses today are getting more aligned with governments. "Leaders across the world are going to the capital cities and asking, 'Tell us what we should do'. You are seeing the tech titans meet in the White House. You are seeing similar issues in China. In India, meetings are not so public. But if you really go into the strategies of business houses in a very deep way, you can see it is pretty aligned with what governments want them to do."Bringing the conversation full circle, Gupta reflected on leadership in the public eye and the balance between self-worth and social validation. "I am an entrepreneur first. The celebrity part is just a bonus. My brand will always be product-first. I wear different hats throughout the day. In my mind I can make that differentiation," she said.

Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), a public-sector shipbuilder, will launch three technologically advanced vessels, including an Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft (ASW SWC) for the Indian Navy, here on Saturday, the company said.The other vessels to be launched are the Hybrid Electric Methanol-Ready Commissioning Service Operation Vessel (CSOV) and India's largest Trailer Suction Hopper Dredger, DCI Dredge Godavari.According to CSL, the triple launch reaffirms the shipyard's leadership in naval, commercial and green maritime segments."These launch will showcase India's engineering excellence, indigenisation drive and commitment to sustainable maritime development under the Maritime India Vision 2030 and Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiatives," the CSL said in a statement.The ASW SWC for the Navy is the sixth vessel built under an eight-ship contract signed in April 2019.The 78-metre-long, 896-tonne craft can achieve speeds up to 25 knots and is equipped with advanced underwater sensors, lightweight torpedoes, ASW rockets, and mine-laying capability, the CSL said.The vessel can also conduct low-intensity maritime operations, coordinated ASW missions with aircraft, and search and rescue operations in coastal waters.It will replace the Indian Navy's Abhay-class corvettes, enhancing the force's near-shore anti-submarine capabilities with improved automation and endurance, the CSL statement said.The CSL said that Hybrid Electric Methanol-Ready CSOV (Hull No. BY 151) marks CSL's entry into the offshore renewable energy market.The 93-metre-long, 19.6-metre-wide vessel, equipped with hybrid-electric propulsion, methanol-ready engines, large lithium-ion battery packs, and a motion-compensated gangway system, will support commissioning and maintenance of offshore wind turbines, the statement said.It will also serve as a "floating hotel" for offshore technicians, designed to world-class comfort and noise standards, the CSL said.Similarly, DCI Dredge Godavari, being built for Dredging Corporation of India in collaboration with Royal IHC, Netherlands, is India's largest and most advanced dredger.The CSL said that the 12,000-cubic-metre Trailer Suction Hopper Dredger, measuring 127 metres in length with a dredging depth of 36 metres, will boost India's port deepening and reclamation capacity."This project embodies the Aatmanirbhar Bharat vision, bringing world-class dredging technology to Indian shores and strengthening the nation's port-led development," the CSL added.

US President Donald Trump claimed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has vowed to halt purchases of Russian oil - an issue at the centre of a diplomatic and trade rift between the two countries.Indian oil companies, which are the world's second-largest buyers of Russian oil, said they await clarification on such purchases from the government.Russian oil, which now makes up more than a third of all crude oil they process in refineries to produce fuels like petrol and diesel, cannot be halted abruptly, and at best, imports, for now, can be reduced.Here is an explainer on India's Russian oil trade: BACKGROUNDIndia is the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming country. It imports 87 per cent of its about 5.5 million barrels per day of crude oil consumption.Russia is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of crude oil. OIL TRADETraditionally, India bought two-thirds of all its crude oil from the Middle East countries, such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.India turned to purchasing Russian oil sold at a discount after Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow and shunned its supplies over its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Consequently, from a mere 1.7 per cent share in total oil imports in 2019-20 (FY20), Russia's share increased to 40 per cent in 2023-24, and it is now the biggest oil supplier to India.In terms of volume, India imported 88 million tonnes from Russia in FY25, out of the total shipment of 245 million tonnes.The primary reason driving the Russian oil buy was the discounts relative to other internationally traded crude oil. Discounts topped USD 19-20 per barrel in 2023, but have since shrunk to USD 3.5-5 per barrel. OIL IMPORT NUMBERSIndia's crude imports in September were around 4.7 million barrels per day, up 2,20,000 bpd month-on-month and flat year-on-year. Russian crude maintained its position as the largest single supplier, contributing about 1.6 million bpd - a 34 per cent share.However, this was roughly 1,60,000 bpd below the average Russian volumes imported during the first eight months of 2025, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.In the first half of October, Russian oil supplies were at 1.77 million bpd. Iraq was the second biggest crude oil supplier to India at around 1.01 million bpd, followed by Saudi Arabia at 8,30,000 bpd. The US has overtaken the UAE to become India's fourth largest supplier with 647,000 bpd.UAE supplied 394,000 bpd. STOPPING RUSSIAN OILCutting off Russian supplies immediately is near impossible. Typically, oil is contracted 4-6 weeks prior to delivery, so the one that is being delivered now is what would have been contracted in early and mid-September.Deliveries for at least till the end of November have already been contracted. So, the best-case scenario, in case what Trump said is true, would be that Indian refiners will stop contracting and deliveries from Russia will start drying up from the third or fourth week of November.Going by the contracts entered, the current flows of 1.6-1.8 million bpd of Russian imports look "more realistic" for the coming few weeks, analysts said. TRUMP STATEMENTAccording to Kpler, Trump's suggestion that India will cut Russian oil imports appears to be political posturing, with no official confirmation from New Delhi. Flows from Russia remain robust. "Indian imports of Russian crude are tracking at a strong 1.8 million bpd in October, up approximately 2,50,000 bpd from September." The dip in imports during July-September was driven less by tariff concerns and more by seasonal factors, particularly increased maintenance activity at PSU refineries. In fact, most contracts for deliveries up to early September were finalised 6-10 weeks in advance, meaning deals were largely locked in before July 31. So, dips in July-September were mostly due to refinery requirements. ECONOMICS OF RUSSIAN OILRussian crude remains structurally vital for India, accounting for roughly 34 per cent of its total imports and offering compelling discounts that are too significant for refiners to ignore.The rationale for India's continued procurement is clear. Even with narrower discounts than in 2023, Russian barrels remain one of the most economical feedstock options available to Indian refiners due to landed discounts and high GPW (gross product worth) margin outputs from grades, such as Urals. WHAT IS RUSSIAN OIL FLOWS STOPRussia is a major oil exporter. Its three primary customers are China, India and Turkey. In September, China bought 47 per cent of Russia's crude exports, followed by India (38 per cent), Turkiye (6 per cent) and the EU (6 per cent).Stopping Russian oil imports would force India to rely on limited alternatives, potentially driving global crude prices up to USD 100 per barrel amid rising demand and tight supply.Analysts said there is a finite supply of crude oil on the planet. If one major supplier - Russia - is taken out of the equation, importers, likely India, will have to fall back on other suppliers. This increased demand for non-Russian oil will drive up prices, potentially stoking inflation globally.Russia exports about 4.3-4.8 million bpd (total output of 9.2 million bpd), which is about 5 per cent of the overall crude oil supply.India has managed to bring down inflation as it kept fuel rates unchanged in the last few years. It created a buffer by buying low-priced Russian and other crude and used it to keep retail pump rates stable when international prices rose, like in 2022.While the shift to Russia helped India secure affordable energy supplies, the Trump administration criticised the purchases, accusing New Delhi of profiteering by buying discounted Russian oil and exporting refined fuel to regions, including Europe.India has maintained that its actions do not violate any international laws, as there are no sanctions on purchasing Russian crude. The European Union only recently imposed a ban on importing fuel derived from Russian crude. Additionally, the US has not sanctioned the purchase of Russian crude oil or its refined products.While many EU countries have banned imports of Russian oil, a price cap was introduced for other countries purchasing Russian crude oil. Indian imports have adhered to this price cap. OPTIONS BEFORE INDIAIndian refiners can operate without supplies from Moscow from a technical standpoint, but the shift would involve major economic and strategic trade-offs, analysts said.Russian crude supports high distillate yields - the share of crude converted into fuels like petrol, diesel, and jet fuel through distillation. Replacing Russian crude, resulting in lower middle distillates (diesel and jet fuel) and higher residue outputs.Deep discounts and strong compatibility with India's refining systems led to a surge in imports of Russian Ural crude oil.Russian crude supports high distillate yields (diesel and jet fuel) and is ideally suited to India's advanced refining infrastructure. It has enabled both state-owned and private refiners to operate above nameplate capacity while maintaining strong margins.Should Russian oil become inaccessible, India could face an additional USD 3-5 billion in annual import costs (based on a USD 5 per barrel premium on 1.6-1.8 million bpd).If global prices rise further (a scenario in which Russian crude exports are being curtailed, in the absence of sufficient buying interest from India), the financial burden could increase significantly.Replacing 1.6-1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude would require a multi-regional approach.The Middle East remains the most viable option operationally, grades such as WTI Midland from the US could contribute 2,00,000-4,00,000 bpd.These (US crude) are lighter and yield less diesel, a disadvantage for India's distillate-heavy demand. Long-haul freight and cost considerations will also restrict scalability. West Africa and Latin America (LatAm) crudes offer moderate potential.A balanced replacement strategy may involve 60-70 per cent of substitute volumes from the Middle East, with the US and African/LatAm crudes serving as tactical fillers, analysts said.US IMPORTSAccording to Kpler, India can import more from the US, but the upside is capped at around 4,00,000-5,00,000 bpd. India has limited upside, due to US grades facing both logistical disadvantages, economic and compatibility challenges with Indian refining systems, which makes a material swing toward American crude unlikely.Though Indian refiners continue to diversify and try to get cargoes that suit the economics, Kpler data shows Indian imports of US crude have averaged 310 kbd so far in 2025, an increase from 199 kbd in 2024, hitting a yearly high of approx 500 kbd (Expected in October). EXPERT COMMENTPrashant Vasisht, Senior Vice President and Co-Group Head, Corporate Ratings, Icra Ltd, said, "Icra believes domestic refiners will purchase crude from various sources guided by economics and availability".While the overall volumes of Russian crude remain high, the discounts on Russian crude have been coming down, owing to which the crudes from the Middle East have become attractive because of the geographical proximity of the region to India, he added.